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伊战死亡人数触目惊心 达120万人
Iraq war has cost 1.2m lives - Survey
[ 2007-09-17 16:12 ]

startling new household survey of Iraqis released last week claims as many as 1.2 million people may have died because of the conflict in Iraq

A startling new household survey of Iraqis released last week claims as many as 1.2 million people may have died because of the conflict in Iraq - apparently lending weight to a 2006 survey in the Lancet that reported similarly high levels.

The estimates, extrapolated from a sample of 1,461 adults around the country, were collected by a British polling agency, ORB, which asked Iraqis how many people living in their household had died as a result of the violence.

Previous estimates, most prominently collected by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, reported in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half this number, 654,965, as a likely figure in a possible range of 390,000 to 940,000.

Although the household survey was carried out by a polling organization, rather than by epidemiological researchers operating under the discipline of scientific peer review, it has again raised the specter that the 2003 invasion of Iraq has caused a far more substantial death toll than officially acknowledged by the US or UK governments or the Iraqi Ministry of Health.

The ORB survey follows an earlier report by the organization which suggested one in four Iraqi adults had had a family member killed. Their latest survey suggests that in Baghdad that number is as high as one in two. The poll also questioned the surviving relatives on how their loved ones were killed. It reveals 48 percent died from a gunshot wound, 20 percent from the impact of a car bomb, 9 percent from aerial bombardment, 6 percent by accident and 6 percent from another blast or ordnance.

If true, the latest figures would suggest the death toll in Iraq now exceeds that of the Rwandan genocide in which 800,000 died.

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(Agencies)

据上周公布的一项最新伊拉克住户调查显示,多达120万人死于伊战及战争爆发以来的各种暴力冲突。这一令人震惊的结果进一步增加了《柳叶刀》杂志2006年一项调查结果的可信度,后者所统计的伊战死亡人数也达到很高水平。

英国ORB民调机构对1461名伊拉克成年人进行了抽样调查,统计这些人家里有多少人死于暴力冲突。

此前的大多数据由美国约翰斯•霍普金斯•布隆伯格公共卫生学院收集统计,据2006年10月在《柳叶刀》杂志上公布的统计报告显示,伊战死亡人数可能在39万至94万之间,很可能为654965人,约为最新统计结果的近一半。

尽管该调查没有采取流行病学研究领域的同行评议形式,而是由民调机构入户调查,但调查结果再次引起恐惧:开始于2003年的伊拉克战争所造成的死亡人数已远远超过英美两国及伊拉克卫生部公认的官方统计数据。

ORB民调机构此前的一份报告显示,每四个伊拉克成年人中就有一人有家属遇难。最新调查发现,巴格达的这一比例高达二分之一(两个人中有一人有家人遇难)。调查还询问了调查对象的家属是如何丧生的。结果发现,48%的人死于枪伤,20%的人死于汽车炸弹,9%的人死于空袭, 6%的人死于意外及其他爆炸或袭击。

如果这一数字属实,伊战的死亡人数现已超过卢旺达大屠杀的80万人。

(于楠 英语点津姗姗编辑)

 

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