China's economic target? 中国能达到其经济目标吗？

媒体英语会带大家一起学习 BBC 撰稿人在报道世界大事时常用到的单词和短语。

经济将是中国新一届中央领导人面临的最大挑战之一。即将离任的国家主席胡锦涛已经为他的接班人设定了新目标，也就是在2020年前让中国的人均收入翻一倍。 请听BBC经济记者 Andrew Walker 发回的报道：

Judging by China's recent performance, Hu Jintao's target might be seen as easily achievable. It implies economic growth of about 9.6% a year, which is rather less than the average over the last three decades. But that growth was based on some elements that can't last indefinitely.

In common with many emerging countries, China's economic success has involved a rapid increase in the number of industrial workers, many of them moving from rural to urban areas. There is a limit to that process, and China might be close to it already. Very high levels of investment have also been important, but they are not seen as sustainable.

There is also the central role that exports have played in China's growth. The uncertain outlook in many rich country markets casts a shadow over that too. Most economists think the transition that's needed is to an economy driven much more by spending by China's own consumers. As incomes have risen, so has consumer spending, but its share in economic activity remains unusually low.

The World Bank has set out reforms that might help change that, by reducing incentives to focus on exports, and industrial investment. The Bank also suggests a wider reform effort to make China more of a market economy. If that analysis is right, the prize could be many more years of strong economic performance and rising Chinese living standards.