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Question:
In this headline - "Iraq has descended into chaos way
beyond West's worst-case scenario" - what does worst-case scenario mean?
Answer:
It means the situation in Iraq has become more chaotic than
the worst West has imagined.
A scenario by definition is a situation that could possibly happen but
has yet to happen. The worst-case scenario is the worst possible chain of
events that may transpire.
Worst-case scenarios are often projected along side best-case
scenarios, which, of course, refer to the best possible situation to
expect.
In case of the war on Iraq, a statement attributed to a White House
spokesperson read thus: "In our best case scenario, regime change in
Baghdad would trigger the spread of democracy and freedom throughout the
Middle East. Awed by America's power, Muslim support for terrorism would
evaporate, Palestinians and Israelis would make peace and global
anti-American sentiment would evolve into gratitude and goodwill."
Hmm, it has a ring to it that sounds like Disneyland, doesn't it?
The worst-case scenarios over Iraq, on the other hand, range from
prolonged war, heavy loss of life, mounting war cost to comparisons with
"another Viet Nam" for America, plus more terrorist attacks and growing
anti-American sentiments in the Muslim world.
Enough of politics. When Yao Ming injured his foot back in April, all
sorts of scenarios were projected by the media too, the worst imaginable
in China being prolonged rehabilitation and Yao's failure to represent
China at the FIBA World Championships in August.
As of today, it appears something of a best-case scenario is coming to
fruition - Yao has been making such a great progress that he may even join
his Chinese teammates on court as early as later this month.
Meanwhile, in the World Cup currently driving up beer sales and
depriving Chinese soccer fans much sleep (as some games are played as late
as 3am local time), England star Wayne Rooney (recovering foot a foot
injury similar to that of Yao's) also gives people a lot of hope and/or
fear for. The worst-case, or indeed the nightmare scenario for English
fans is that the young Manchester United star misses the tournament
entirely or that England fail to go far enough (in time for Rooney's
return).
On May 26, the day Rooney flew to Germany after the latest test allowed
him to join the England squad but not to play any group matches, the
London Times ran a Q&A with its soccer correspondent Matt Dickinson.
"Q: What does this mean to England?
A: It's good news in the sense
of he's on the plane to Germany. There's a good vibe in the England camp
this morning, but his participation in the tournament is still up in the
air. The England camp are not celebrating but will be feeling optimistic.
Q: Is it bad news or is this what was expected?
A: It's what we
expected. The best case scenario all along was that he might make the very
end of the group stages. The more realistic view was that he'll make the
knockouts. As things stand he is progressing well. If anything, this is a
victory for the FA as Rooney will be linking up with them earlier. They've
scored a political victory over Manchester United - public statements have
suggested England and United have been working in harmony but there have
been underlying tensions.
..."
Another example, this time a report from CBS News (March 4, 2005) on
AIDS:
"AIDS could kill 80 million Africans by 2025: UN
ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA - More than 80 million Africans will likely die
of AIDS by 2025 if the international community doesn't do more soon to
stem the epidemic, a UN report says.
Another 90 million people in Africa - more than one in 10 people on the
continent - could contract HIV infections by then, says the report
released Friday.
More than 25 million Africans already have the virus that causes AIDS.
The disease has caused life expectancy in nine countries on the continent
to drop below 40, according to the UNAIDS report, AIDS in Africa.
...
Researchers present three possible case studies of how the AIDS
epidemic in Africa could evolve, based on policy decisions by leaders in
Africa and elsewhere.
In their best-case scenario, international donors contribute nearly
$200 billion US to an intense education and treatment campaign that would
save 16 million people from dying of AIDS and 43 million others from
getting HIV.
Even with huge donations and better treatment, however, the agency says
more than 67 million Africans are likely to die from AIDS.
The worst-case scenario would see 89 million new cases of the disease
in Africa in two decades.
…"
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