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夹在美中之间的欧盟 The EU Between the U.S. and China

中美聚焦网 2018-08-15 09:21


自从唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统以来,专家们一直在猜测,这是否会导致中国与欧盟的关系更加密切。最近已经有许多迹象显示出了这种倾向,虽说欧盟和中国之间以往也存在着分歧。欧盟发现自己正处在中国和美国之间,这也许能让它加强自身在国际秩序中的作用。

Since Donald Trump was elected US president, pundits have been speculating whether this would lead to a closer relationship between China and the EU. Many signs have recently pointed in that direction, despite the fact that in the past, the EU and China have also had their share of differences. The EU thus finds itself in a middle position between the US and China, which could allow it to strengthen its role in the international order.

总体上,欧中关系在实际工作层面一直比较牢固。但政见使具体的分歧变得突出,特别是贸易关系相当棘手。最近一个例子是对中国市场经济地位(MES)的争议,这一争议已经对其他领域产生溢出效应。

Overall, EU-China relations have long been strong on a pragmatic and working level. Politics have highlighted specific differences, particularly in trade relations, that may prove difficult to resolve. One recent example is the debate over China's Market Economy Status (MES), which has had spill over effects into other areas.

2016年,中国加入WTO议定书的一项条款到期,该条款认定中国为非市场经济。北京方面认为,条款到期意味着中国将自动获得MES,而这会使欧盟等贸易伙伴对中国产品采取反倾销措施的能力发生改变。美国和欧盟都未明确给予中国MES,认为中国没有达到标准。然而,获得MES一直是中国主要的外交目标之一,中国也一直不加掩饰地为获得MES向合作伙伴施压。例如,由于欧盟在MES问题上的立场,2017年中欧布鲁塞尔峰会之后有关气候变化和清洁能源的联合声明就被扣下了。

In 2016, a provision in China's WTO Accession protocol expired, which identified China as a non-market economy. Beijing argued that this meant China would automatically be granted MES, which would change the abilities of trading partners such as the EU to launch anti-dumping measures against Chinese products. Neither the US nor the EU have explicitly granted China MES, arguing China does not fulfil the criteria. Yet, attaining this status has been one of China's key diplomatic goals and it has not shied away from putting pressure on its partners to get it. For instance, in 2017, a joint statement on climate change and clean energy was withheld after the EU-China Summit in Brussels due to the EU's position on MES.

不过,目前确实存在着关系改善的迹象。

Signs of improved relations do, however, exist.

贸易和投资仍然是中欧关系的支柱,而在看上去双方拥有更多共识的问题上,如气候变化、维护伊朗核协议、启动WTO改革等,中欧合作是稳固的。中国在欧盟的投资越来越多,由于监管障碍较少,政策环境可预测,以及拥有高技术资产,中国目前对欧洲的投资比对北美高九倍。中欧双边投资协定谈判正在进行中,考虑到当前国际贸易和投资关系面临的种种坎坷,谈判本身就可以说是一个积极的迹象。

Trade and investment remain the backbone of EU-China relations, and cooperation is strong on issues where there seems to be more of a common understanding, such as on climate change, the preservation of the Iran nuclear deal, and initiating WTO reform. China is increasingly investing in the EU, with investment volumes now nine-times higher in Europe than in North America due to fewer regulatory hurdles, a predictable policy environment, and high-tech assets. Negotiations over a Bilateral Investment Agreement between the two are moving along, which can itself be seen as a positive sign when taking into account all the stumbling blocks currently facing international trade and investment relations.

今年7月的中欧峰会受到称赞,因为这是两年来双方第一次发表联合声明,表明双方都愿意积极描述它们之间的关系。但仔细研读这份声明会发现,双方的共识似乎只存在于一些比较模糊的问题上,而人权、钢铁产能过剩、南海等更为敏感的问题并不包括在内。几个曾经引发激烈争议的话题,如MES、钢铁关税或贸易保护立法,都没有被提及。

July's EU-China Summit was applauded for producing the first joint statement in two years, which illustrates that both sides aim to project a positive picture of their relations. But on taking a closer look at the statement, consensus between both parties seems to exist on rather vague issues, while more sensitive issues such as human rights, steel overcapacity, and the South China Sea were not included. No mention has been made of several contentious topics that have produced heated debate such as MES, steel tariffs, or trade defence legislation.

自从特朗普对中国商品加征关税以来,北京加大了对欧盟的魅力攻势。虽然以往中国更愿意与个别成员国打交道,但它目前认为,把欧盟当成单一行为体来对待更加有利,尤其是在建立反美联盟的时候。

Since Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing has upped its charm-offensive towards the EU. While in the past China has preferred to deal with individual member states, it now sees advantages in dealing with the EU as a single actor, in particular when it comes to building alliances against the US

与此同时,北京继续与单个欧盟成员国打交道。过去十年,在经济关系不断深化的同时,中方似乎越来越不愿意深度卷入人权等敏感问题。而通过默默的外交活动,德国说服中国准许已故诺贝尔奖得主刘晓波的妻子刘霞离开中国前往德国。

At the same time, Beijing continues to deal with individual EU Member States as well. Over the past decade, the deepening of economic ties seems to have been accompanied by an increasing unwillingness on the part of China to engage substantially on sensitive issues like human rights. Yet, through quiet diplomacy, Germany managed to persuade China to allow Liu Xia, wife of late Nobel Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, to leave China for Germany.

虽然这些都表明双边关系取得了进展,但怀疑也是有道理的。中国在欧盟的存在和投资日益增加,引发了有关国家安全问题的争论。德国等国已呼吁欧盟制定统一政策处理中国在敏感领域的投资。国家立法已经收紧,一项全欧盟范围内的立法提案正在制定中,内容包括加强成员国之间对可能涉及国家安全的投资的信息共享。这些举措为欧盟与中国关系增添了争议内容,有可能引来反制措施,但它也表明欧盟为保护自身利益甘冒这一风险。

While these are signs of progress in the relationship, scepticism is warranted. China's increasing presence and investments in the EU have sparked debate over national security issues. Countries like Germany have called for a common EU approach towards Chinese investments in sensitive areas. National legislation has been tightened and an EU-wide legislative proposal that includes increased information-sharing among Member States regarding investments with potential national security implications is currently in the making. Such initiatives add contentious elements to the EU-China relationship which could provoke countermeasures, but demonstrate that this is a risk the EU is willing to take to protect its own interests.

欧盟对中国主推的“一带一路”以及中国与中东欧的“16 + 1”合作平台等倡议也是心存疑虑。欧盟还批评中国限制欧洲企业进入其市场、实行保护主义、缺乏互惠。欧盟领导人明确表示,尽管他们不打算站在中国一边反对美国,但他们也觉得不能再把美国现政府当成稳定的合作伙伴来依靠。

The EU has also been sceptical of Chinese initiatives like the flagship Belt and Road Initiative and 16+1, China's platform to engage Central and Eastern European Countries. The EU also criticises the lack of market access for European businesses in the Chinese market, protectionism, and lack of reciprocity. EU leaders have made it clear that although they do not intend to side with China against the US yet, they also feel they can no longer rely on the current US administration as a stable partner.

欧盟委员会主席让-克洛德·容克日前对美国的访问被誉为获得了成功,它展示出美欧的团结友好,与月初加拿大G7峰会的可怕景象形成鲜明对比。但到目前为止,访问唯一的实际成果就是双方同意未来进行谈判。

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker's recent visit to the US has been applauded as a success and produced pictures of unity and friendship that stand in contrast to viral images from the G7 Summit earlier this month in Canada. But the only tangible outcome so far is an agreement to future talks.

在当前的辩论中,国际关系时常以过于简单化的方式呈现。虽然每天的轰动性政治事件往往凸显国际关系的剧烈变化,但官僚机构的车轮却保证了基本工作的运行,而这通常在公众的视线之外。通过这些流程,尽管特朗普加税、反复威胁和口头攻击,欧美却依然保持着密切的关系。类似机制同时也在推动中欧关系在工作层面取得进展,虽然双方存在政治上的分歧。

In the current debate, international relations are often presented in an oversimplified way. While the daily stir of politics tends to highlight the drastic shifts in these relations, the wheels of bureaucracy ensure the continuance of the foundational work - often beyond public sight. Through these processes, EU-US relations will remain close despite Trump's tariffs, repeated threats and verbal attacks. But these same mechanisms simultaneously drive the progress of EU-China relations on a working level, despite political differences.

欧盟正面临平衡对华、对美关系的挑战,其内部对外交政策也莫衷一是。如果欧盟不强烈表达自己的利益,中国和美国的决策者就可能更加认为欧盟无足轻重。欧盟不太可能选择一方,排斥另一方,因为它在两边都有重大利益,而且这种排斥会破坏欧盟在多边和以规则为基础的国际秩序中发挥更大作用的目标。与日本等其他大国加速达成贸易协议就表明,欧盟在有足够政治意愿情况下是有行动能力的,而这会加强欧盟在国际舞台上的地位,并给其他合作伙伴发出信号。欧盟如果运筹帷幄,就能找准定位,在国际贸易中保持强势,这样就有可能与中国和美国这两个欧盟最大贸易伙伴达成投资协议。不管怎样,这种定位将为欧盟提供跳板,在充满紧张的世界中实现自己的目标。

The EU is facing the challenge of balancing its relations with China as well as the US while facing internal disputes on foreign policy. If the EU does not project its own interests strongly, Chinese and US decision makers may further doubt the Union's relevance. It is unlikely that the EU would choose one partner over the other as it has critical interests with both, and such exclusion would harm its aim to strengthen its role within a multilateral, rule-based international order. Accelerating trade deals with other large economies, like Japan, demonstrates that the EU is capable of acting when there is enough political will, which can strengthen its position in the international arena and send signals to other partners. If the EU plays its cards right, it could position itself well and maintain its strong credentials in international trade. This could yield investment agreements with China and the US, its two largest trading partners. Either way, such positioning would provide the EU with a springboard to pursue its goals in a world full of tension.

作者:因萨·埃韦特(Insa Ewert),德国全球与区域问题研究所研究员

(来源:中美聚焦网,编辑:Helen)

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