东盟等新兴市场崛起有望增强我国出口韧性 New demand may boost future exports

海关总署的数据显示，今年前7个月，我国外贸克服诸多不利影响，实现较快增长，其中对新兴市场出口实现强势增长。专家指出，随着东盟和印度等新兴市场经济体的崛起，以及中国与这些经济体之间经贸关系的改善，中国出口韧性有望进一步增强。

China's exports are expected to become more resilient as demand from emerging markets such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and India expands rapidly, experts said on Monday after reviewing official data that Customs released on Sunday.

在回顾海关总署8月7日发布的官方数据后，专家8月8日表示，随着东盟和印度等新兴市场的需求快速扩张，中国出口韧性有望进一步增强。

Data showed exports to emerging markets in the first seven months of the year grew strongly though the global economy is cooling.

数据显示，尽管全球经济正在冷却，今年前7个月中国对新兴市场的出口却实现强势增长。

"The fast growth in exports to emerging markets reflects the improving economic and trade ties between China and those economies, and the momentum is expected to continue," said Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation in Beijing.

国际贸易经济合作研究院国际市场研究部副主任白明表示，对新兴市场出口的快速增长反映出中国和这些经济体之间经贸关系的改善，而且这一势头有望持续下去。

"Thanks to that, China's exports are expected to remain resilient, despite the economic recession facing the developed economies and the protectionist approach to trade adopted by the United States and some European countries."

白明指出，尽管当前发达经济体面临经济衰退，美国和一些欧洲国家采取贸易保护主义措施，但是多亏了中国和新兴市场的经贸关系，中国出口有望持续复苏。

According to the General Administration of Customs, China's exports to ASEAN, its largest trading partner, surged 19 percent from a year ago to 2.05 trillion yuan ($300 billion) during the first seven months of the year.

海关总署的数据显示，今年前7个月中国对东盟出口2.05万亿元，同比增长19.1%。前7个月，东盟为中国第一大贸易伙伴。

The value of exports to economies participating in the Belt and Road Initiative also gained nearly 20 percent year-on-year, to hit 4.27 trillion yuan.

同期，中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口4.27万亿元，同比增长近20%。

Analysts said the fast growth pace was mostly attributable to removal of supply chain snarls in China and ramped-up production in those economies, which improved demand for raw materials and intermediate goods from China.

分析师称，中国出口的迅速增长主要应归功于中国供应链堵点的打通，以及这些经济体生产规模的扩大提高了对中国原材料和半成品的需求。

On a broader note, the growth was also catalyzed by improvement in bilateral trade, and investment facilitation and liberalization between China and ASEAN economies, thanks to their free trade agreements and other trade arrangements, they said.

分析师指出，从更广泛的视角来看，得益于中国和东盟经济体之间的自由贸易协定和其他贸易合作，双边贸易关系的改善、投资便利化自由化也推动了出口的增长。

According to a new report from Hua Chuang Securities, China's robust exports were to a large extent driven by the growing demand in developed economies since 2021. As the developed economies have started to stall, their contribution to China's export growth slumped.

华创证券的新报告称，2021年以来，我国出口增长受需求日增的发达经济体的拉动更为显著，不过随着发达经济体经济增速的放缓，它们对中国出口的拉动率也大幅下降。

On the other hand, China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and India have increased in recent months, relative to the pre-COVID-19 levels, the report stated.

报告指出，与此同时，我国对东盟、印度等新兴市场经济体近几个月的出口相比疫情前则有显著提升。

From 2016 to 2019, outbound shipments to India, Indonesia and Brazil accounted for 2.5 percent, 1.3 percent, and 1.7 percent, respectively, of China's overall exports. In recent months, the corresponding figures rose to 2.7 percent, 1.5 percent and 2 percent, the report stated.

报告称，2016-2019年，我国对印度、印尼、巴西等经济体的出口份额均值在2.5％、1.3％、1.7％左右，近几个月份额则分别提升至2.7％、1.5％、2％左右。

Bai with the CAITEC said work and business resumption in emerging markets since the COVID outbreaks, and more importantly, the huge economic potential in those developing economies, will ensure that they will have increasing demand for Chinese products for a long period.

国际贸易经济合作研究院的白明指出，疫情暴发以来新兴市场的复工复产尤其是这些发展中经济体的巨大经济潜力将确保其对中国产品的需求在长期内持续增加。

"Chinese products are highly competitive in global markets thanks to their high quality and relatively low prices, and can well meet demand from economies seeking sustained and fast growth," he said, adding improved connectivity also contributes to the nation's fast growth of exports to emerging markets.

白明表示，中国产品因质优价廉在全球市场上具有高度竞争力，可以很好地满足寻求可持续快速增长的经济体的需求。他还补充道，连通性的增强也有助于我国对新兴市场出口的快速增长。

According to Hua Chuang Securities report, China's exports of chemicals, textile raw materials, textile products and base metal products to ASEAN have increased significantly this year. Exports of chemicals, plastic and rubber products, base metal products, and mechanical and electrical products to India, as well as exports of chemicals, mechanical and electrical products, and textile raw materials to Brazil, have also ballooned.

华创证券的报告显示，今年我国对东盟出口化工品、纺织原料及纺织制品、贱金属制品明显提升；对印度出口化工品、塑料橡胶制品、贱金属制品、机电产品明显提升；对巴西出口化工品、机电产品、纺织原料明显提升。

Zhao Wei, chief economist at Sinolink Securities, said there is strong complementarity in the export structures of China and ASEAN. Against the background of high labor and energy costs, the division of labor and cooperation between China and ASEAN across the regional industrial chain may help them to receive more orders in global trade, which can add resilience to their exports.

国金证券首席经济学家赵伟指出，中国和东盟的出口结构有很强的互补性。在劳动力、能源等成本高企的背景下，中国和东盟在区域产业链分工协作，或有助于在全球贸易中获得较多订单，从而增强出口韧性。

Gao Lingyun, director of the international investment division at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, which is part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, however, said Chinese enterprises need to reduce production costs and rise in the global value chain, to sustain and improve the competitiveness of Chinese goods in global markets.

不过，中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室主任高凌云表示，中国企业需要降低生产成本，提升在全球价值链中的地位，从而保持和提高中国产品在全球市场中的竞争力。

The Chinese authorities concerned also need to ramp up efforts to improve the local business climate so that enterprises can cut indirect costs, he said.

他指出，中国相关政府部门也需要加大力度改善地方商业环境从而降低企业的间接成本。

英文来源：中国日报

翻译&编辑：丹妮