贸易战会给中国带来多大伤害？ How Much Will the Trade War Hurt China?

当前的贸易战对中国经济有什么影响呢？有分析表明，尽管它给经济带来的直接影响肯定是负面的，但实际上却很小，还不到GDP的0.5%。然而，即使对中国来说直接的经济影响也许是可控的，但贸易战本身却有可能损害中美之间的长期关系，包括影响涵盖教育、旅游的服务贸易在未来的增长速度。美国在服务领域一直拥有庞大的、不断增长的顺差，中方估计这一顺差在2017年达到540亿美元，美方的估计是400亿美元。贸易战最大的影响，也许将远远超出眼下直接受到影响的货物。

What is the impact of the current trade war on the Chinese economy? An analysis shows that while the immediate direct impact on the economy is certainly negative, it is small in real terms, affecting less than 0.5% of GDP. However, while the immediate economic impact may be manageable for China, the trade war itself may do damage to the longer-term relations between China and the United States, including by affecting the future rate of growth of trade in services, including education and tourism. The U.S. has a persistent, large and growing surplus in this area, which was estimated by China to be $54 billion, and by the U.S. to be $40 billion in 2017. The biggest impact from the trade war might go beyond the immediate goods that are affected now.

不过最先的直接影响是：对美国进口商来说，由于不具备消化关税成本的利润空间，因此，特朗普政府对中国产品的新征税清单将导致从中国进口的大部分商品变得过于昂贵。这些关税如果全面实施的话，有可能使相关的中国对美出口完全停止，其金额也许达到2500亿美元。

But first, the immediate impact: the Trump administration's new list of Chinese products to be subject to tariffs will make the import of most of these goods from China prohibitively expensive for U.S. importers, as they don't have the kind of profit margins that would enable them to absorb the cost of these tariffs. If fully implemented, these tariffs will effectively lead to a complete halt in affected Chinese exports to the U.S., potentially amounting to $250 billion.

这将对中国经济产生什么影响呢？首先，作为和美国一样庞大的经济体，一直以来中国相对不怎么受外部的干扰。过去40年中，虽然中国进出口的增长速度与其他所有经济体一样有起有落，但中国实际GDP增长率保持了相对稳定，事实上一直在正增长。

How would that affect the Chinese economy? First of all, China, as a large economy like the United States, has always been relatively immune to external disturbances. During the past four decades, while the rates of growth of Chinese exports and imports have fluctuated like those of all other economies, the rate of growth of Chinese real GDP has remained relatively stable, and in fact has always stayed positive.

此外，过去10年中国对出口的依赖已经持续减弱。商品出口占中国GDP的份额从2006年高峰时的35.3%，降到了2017年的18.1%（见图1）。特别是对美国的商品出口，已经从2006年高峰时占中国GDP的7.2%降至2017年的3.4%，下降了一半以上。

Moreover, Chinese dependence on exports has continued to decline over the past decade. The share of exports of goods within total Chinese GDP has fallen from a peak of 35.3% in 2006 to 18.1% in 2017 (see Chart 1). Specifically regarding exports of goods to the U.S. alone, this share of Chinese GDP has also fallen by more than half, from a peak of 7.2% in 2006 to 3.4% in 2017.

出口不再是中国经济增长的主要引擎，相反，今天中国经济增长的主要驱动力是国内需求，是由家庭消费、基础设施投资和公共产品消费来拉动的。

Exports are no longer the principal engine of Chinese economic growth. Instead, the major driver of Chinese economic growth today is its domestic demand, driven by household consumption, infrastructural investments, and public goods consumption.

中国受美国新关税影响而减少的这部分出口会占到GDP的1.7%。这一下降程度虽绝非等闲，但总体上是可控的。即使受新关税影响的所有中国对美出口都停止，并且这些商品不再出口到其他国家，中国GDP的减少也不会超过1.12%。在这种情况下，原先预期6.5%的年经济增长率会降到5.4%，但与IMF预测2018年全球3.9%的平均增长率相比，这个增长速度仍然相当可观。

The fall in Chinese exports as a result of the new U.S. tariffs would amount to 1.7% of GDP. A reduction of this magnitude is material, but quite manageable in the aggregate. Thus, even if all Chinese exports to the U.S. subject to the new tariffs were both halted and not re-directed elsewhere, the decline in Chinese GDP caused would not exceed 1.12%. Such a reduction from an expected annual growth rate of 6.5% would leave 5.4%, which is still a very respectable rate of growth compared to the world average of 3.9%, as projected by the International Monetary Fund for 2018.

长期发展动向

Longer-Term Developments

重要的是我们要意识到，有两个重要的长期发展动向将会同时发挥作用。

It is important to realize that there are two important longer-term developments simultaneously in play.

首先，贸易战的主要原因之一其实并不在于贸易本身，而在于中美两国之间的经济和技术优势之争。这场竞赛无论是明是暗，都不是从唐纳德·特朗普总统开始的，就算他离任也不会消失。“亚洲再平衡”和“跨太平洋伙伴关系”（TPP）这两项旨在遏制中国的政策都是在巴拉克·奥巴马总统当政时期提出的（但看来已经被特朗普总统抛弃了）。

First, one of the principal causes of the trade war is actually not trade itself, but competition between China and the U.S. for economic and technological dominance. This competition, whether explicit or implicit, did not begin with President Donald Trump and will not go away even after he leaves office. The “pivot to Asia” and the “Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)”, both policies supposedly meant to contain China, were initiated under President Barack Obama (but seemingly abandoned by President Trump).

这场竞赛有可能带来富有建设性的成果。例如，制造最快超级计算机的竞争让两个国家生产出了更好、更快的超级计算机。美国的超级计算机IBM Summit目前是世界冠军，而中国的神威·太湖之光是2016年和2017年的冠军，而且全部采用了中国自己设计的芯片。不过，科技战争也可能使市场日益孤立，从而扼杀创新。

This competition could potentially lead to constructive outcomes. For example, the competition to create the fastest super-computer has already resulted in both countries producing better and faster super-computers – the IBM Summit, an American super-computer, is the current world champion, and China's Sunway TaihuLight, that was built entirely with indigenously designed chips, was the champion in 2016 and 2017. However, the tech war might also stifle innovation through increasingly isolated markets.

第二个长期发展动向，是美国和世界其他地方的民粹主义、孤立主义及保护主义情绪上升，这也会对国际贸易和投资产生重大影响。唐纳德·特朗普总统并不是这种情绪的始作俑者，但他能极其有效地挖掘和利用它们。

The second longer term development is the growth of populist, isolationist, and protectionist sentiment in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, which will also have significant impact on international trade and investment. President Donald Trump did not create these sentiments, but has been able to tap into and exploit them very effectively.

贸易战的最大问题是没有真正的赢家。由于双方面临的可能选择都减少了，因此是双输。两国出口商都将受到伤害，因为它们的出口下降了，而两国进口商的业务也会下滑。两个国家依赖进口商品和原材料的消费者和生产者，也将不得不支付更高的价格。一场大贸易战即使持续时间不长，也深具破坏力，因为它会给未来的贸易与投资决策带来大量的不确定性。何况，如果协议能轻易被推翻，条约能随便被撕毁，那么长期协议也就毫无可信度或用处可言了。

The biggest problem with a trade war is that there are no real winners — both countries lose because the feasible choices open to each of them are reduced. Exporters in both countries will be hurt because of the reduction in their exports, while importers in both countries will see their businesses decline. Consumers and producers who rely on imported goods and inputs in both countries will have to pay higher prices. A serious trade war, however short in duration, is disruptive as it introduces a great deal of uncertainty in future trade and investment decisions. Moreover, if agreements can be easily overturned and treaties readily broken, long-term arrangements will have little credibility or usefulness.

缩小美国对华贸易逆差更好的方法，是美国增加对中国的商品和服务出口，特别是新开发的商品及服务，如食品、能源等。中国对食品和能源的需求会持续保持旺盛，并且会在很多年里呈现增长的势头。这些交易将导致美国的GDP和就业、导致两国的经济福祉出现真正的增长。

A better way to narrow the U.S. trade deficit with China would be for the U.S. to increase its exports of goods and services to China, especially newly created goods and services, such as food and energy. Chinese demand for food and energy will continue to be high and rising for many years. These transactions would lead to genuine increases in GDP and employment in the U.S. and economic well-being in both countries.

美国对华服务出口的另一个快速增长点是教育和旅游业。中国留学生（目前共35万人）和赴美游客的支出一直在快速增长。而且，他们来到美国可以增进中美两国人民之间的了解，促进长期关系的改善。美国在华学生和游客也可以发挥同样的作用。

Another fast-growing component of U.S. exports of services to China is education and tourism. The expenditures of Chinese students (currently totaling 350,000) and tourists in the U.S. have been rising rapidly. Moreover, their presence in the U.S. can enhance understanding between the Chinese and American people and improve long-term ties. U.S. students and tourists in China can also play the same role.

贸易以及文化、教育交流，有可能进一步促进两国之间的经济依存。中国会成为美国能源、食品和教育服务出口的最大客户，美国在这些领域则可能成为中国最重要的供应商。两国都是赢家。

Through trade and cultural and educational exchanges, it is possible to promote further economic interdependence between the two countries. China could become the largest customer of U.S. energy, food, and educational services exports and the U.S. could become China's most important supplier in these areas. Both countries can win.

贸易战什么时候结束？

When Will the Trade War End?

由于贸易战实乃双输，所以尽快结束贸易战符合中美两国的利益。然而，在美国11月6日中期选举之前结束，这种可能性不大，因为特朗普总统需要能够宣布他已经在贸易战中获胜。同样，习近平也要坚持让中国不屈服于美国的压力。

Since the trade war is lose-lose, it is in the interests of both China and the U.S. to try to end it soon. However, it is not likely to end before the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections on November 6, as President Trump needs to be able to declare a victory in the trade war, and likewise, for President Xi to maintain that China has not capitulated to U.S. pressure.

中美关系中还有某些长期的潜在力量在发挥作用。我们可以假设中美之间正在进行的竞争，无论友好还是不友好，会长期存在下去，而预测它最终会如何了结很难。大概除了美国以外，中国和世界其他国家都会继续维护WTO框架下的现存多边贸易体系，因为这些国家都曾经并且将继续从中受益。

There are also longer-term underlying forces at work in China-U.S. relations. We can assume that the ongoing competition between China and the U.S. – whether friendly or unfriendly – will persist for the long-term. It is difficult to predict how things will end up. China and the rest of the world, except possibly the U.S., will likely continue to uphold the current multilateral trading system under the World Trade Organisation (WTO), as they have all benefited and will continue to benefit from it.

尽管存在着不确定性和紧张，但进一步加大中国和美国经济上的相互依存是符合中美两国人民利益的。

In spite of uncertainties and tension, it is in the interest of both Americans and Chinese to promote greater mutual economic interdependence between our two countries.

作者：刘遵义，香港中文大学经济学教授

（来源：中美聚焦网，编辑：Helen）