警惕新冷战绑架中美关系 Beware of the New Cold War Derailing China-US Relations

鼓吹对华冷战在美国从来就没有停止过，在中国也有些人热衷于跟风吆喝。自从中国成为世界第二大经济体，美国一些政治精英鼓动了一波又一波对华政策大辩论，集中的调门就是中美关系正常化以来美国所有的对华政策都失败了，中国的改革开放不但没有达到美国预期的效果，反而随着中国发展日益对美国的世界领导地位形成挑战和威胁，中美关系已走到临界点，应该对中国采取规范、制约和遏制的措施了。特朗普当选美国第45任总统，让冷战精英们感觉时机已到，于是他们大肆鼓吹中国已成为美国的头号战略竞争对手。特朗普总统与这些政治精英相互影响、相互利用，一时间对华贸易热战和从战略上遏制中国的冷战喧嚣，严重毒化了中美关系的正常氛围。

There have been constant calls coming from the US for a cold war with China, and there are some people in China who are keen to engage it. Since China became the world's second largest economy, some of the US political elite have demanded a review of America's China policy. The crux of their argument is that the US's China policy since the normalization of relations has failed. Not only has China's reform and opening up policy not lived up to US expectations, but China is increasingly challenging US hegemony as it develops. China-US relations, therefore, have reached a critical point at which some in the US feel it must regulate, restrict and contain China. Trump's election to the White House was taken by the “cold war elite” that their time had come to play up China as the bogeyman of world peace and a threat to American interests. It also caters to Trump's zero sum mentality to global trade, ignoring the immense benefits China's low-cost consumer goods have benefitted not just millions of American consumers for decades, but the whole world at large. Their twisted view of world trade interconnectivity led them to a philosophical cul-de-sac - ie., that they must contain China, and to a lesser extent, other trading allies, with massive tariffs. Trump's sledgehammer approach to a purely trade issue has led to universal condemnation and resistance. The concern now is that this needless hostility might spread into other areas of bilateral relations.

美国对华贸易战无法无理，损人害己，这已成为世人有言无言的共识。对贸易战，中国不愿打，但也不怕打。中国已被迫坚决回击。如果是单纯的贸易战，相信双方在残酷的现实面前总会找到出路。问题是，当下中美间的冲撞已远远超出人们的想象。

While China is an unwilling participant in this trade war, it will not run away from it either as shown by its retaliatory tariffs against American imports. The hope now is that the pain inflicted on both sides will force them to the negotiating table at some point. . The immediate problem is that this tit-for-tat has already gone beyond where people thought it would go and inflicted serious damage all around.

那么，中美之间会爆发新冷战吗？时下中美关系的政治气氛很不正常，冷战幽灵正四处游荡，冷战叫嚣如山雨欲来，人们已闻到了冷战的火药味。在美国，一些在军界、情报界有头有脸的人物甚至玩起了无中生有、混淆是非、贼喊捉贼的把戏，声称中国正在对美国发动一场“无声的冷战”，正在倾全部资源努力取代美国。看上去，地缘政治的强势回归，大国围绕秩序主导权的博弈一定程度上构成了新冷战的基础条件。然而，在大动荡、大变革、大调整的非（热）战时代，人类社会的主要矛盾正在发生明显变化，地缘政治矛盾正逐步让位于日益深化的全球化与全球治理、国家治理滞后的矛盾。当今世界经济融合与政治对话的时代主趋势也在相当程度上抑制着冷战发酵。中美矛盾不是当今国际社会的主要矛盾。只要中国不应冷战，中美冷战就打不起来，但需时刻保持高度警惕，并努力化解之。

So, will there be a new Cold War between China and the US? The political atmosphere between the two countries is highly abnormal and incendiary, as the specter of the old Cold War looms and the smell of gunpowder pervades. Meanwhile, dignitaries in the US military and intelligence communities are fabricating stories and standing facts on their head by claiming that China is waging a silent cold war and mobilizing all its resources to usurp the US. It does appear, to some extent, that the return to geopolitical tension and jostling for position among the great powers has created the basic conditions for a new cold war. But what's most concerning are the warnings by some serious scholars that the rivalry between the two powers could be spiraling down towards the Thucydides Trap. Fortunately, this is not inevitable in view of the fast changing geo-political dynamics on the world stage, mostly favorable to China. Thanks to President Xi's bold actions, China is now viewed by many as the champion of free trade, sustainable development, efforts to counter climate change and world peace, having supplied the most number of troops to the United Nations Peacekeeping Force. The world community is not blind to China's benevolent influence, and how it uses its power for the greater good of humanity. With such a track record, it's hard to see China firing the first shot in a hot war.

传统的冷战，双方关系的对抗性极强。冷战双方，尤其是首先挑起的一方，以攻击对方制度、否定对方价值观、诋毁对方影响、削弱对方力量、颠覆对方政权为出发点和最高目标。美国借这些手段加速了前苏联的消亡和分裂。时代不同了，产生冷战的诸因素中，制度的不同可以说是形成对抗的最基本因素，但已不是唯一和决定性的。价值观和利益也都可以说与制度因素同等重要，但也都不是唯一的和决定性的。笔者以为，结合并高于以上三要素的“霸权谋取”、“霸权维护”和“霸凌主义”才是最根本的因素，是一切冷战最基本的共性。这一看法或许也解释了相同制度下、同一价值观体系内无法避免冷战。特朗普总统领导下的美国似乎正在成为同一体系内冷战的肇始者和践行者。

During the old Cold War, the relationship between the two camps was one of extreme antagonism. If one side was provoked, it would seek to attack the other's institutions, denounce its values, vilify its influence, weaken its strength and subvert its political power. These were methods used by the US to accelerate the demise of and divide the Soviet Union. Times have changed, however. Of the factors that cause cold wars, differences in institutions is one of the basic factors in creating confrontation, though that is not the only or decisive factor; different values and interests are on a par with institutional factors in terms of importance, but these are also not the only or decisive factors. Combined with and more important than these three factors is “seeking hegemony”, “hegemonic maintenance” and “hegemonic bullying”, which are the most basic factors and most fundamental commonalities of all cold wars. This view also explains why a cold war cannot even be avoided when countries operate within the same institutions and have the same value systems. It seems that under Trump's leadership, the US is becoming a pioneer and practitioner of cold war with countries within a common system.

中华五千年文明的精髓从来都是否定霸权的，新中国历代领导人从来都是反对霸权的，反对霸权主义还明确而充分地体现在中国的宪法和政府政策中。中国十分厌恶和反对冷战。美国就不好说了，现代冷战就是美国人发明的，这些人的基因中充满了霸权思想和冷战思维，他们一代代相传。当下美国国内政治严重分化、异化，贫富鸿沟日益加深，“美国失败”的焦虑也确实很难不让政治精英们重拾祖宗遗留的冷战魔杖。然而，与中国打冷战，美国找错了对象。

A defining aspect of China's five-thousand-year-old civilization has been its rejection of hegemony. Indeed, the leaders of the People's Republic of China have always opposed hegemony, and this is clearly reflected in China's Constitution and its government policies. China hates and opposes cold wars. The US does not as can be seen in its history of foreign interventions. This modern cold war is an American invention. American genes carry on the hegemonic and old Cold War mentality. Domestic politics in the US is highly contentious, divided and divisive, and the gap between rich and poor is widening. Fear of failure in the US has inspired some to pick up the Cold War mantle left by their ancestors. But in targeting China, the US has picked the wrong adversary to wage its cold war.

传统冷战有一个明显的特征，那就是以集团政治和同盟价值观为基础。如今华约已不复存在，北约虽一时注入地缘活力，东扩南下，但眼下离心倾向、甚至分裂现象严重。特朗普公开声称欧盟为“敌人”绝不是一时口误，恰恰反映了传统冷战的精神支柱——东西方对抗的作用边缘化的倾向。美国传统冷战同盟军的美梦恐难实现，势力范围论在当今时代也只是痴人说梦。

A distinct feature of the old Cold War is that it was based on group politics and shared values. Nowadays, the Warsaw Pact no longer exists, and although NATO has gained geopolitical vitality as it has pushed eastward and southward, its centrifugal tendencies and fissions raise serious questions about its efficacy. Trump's public denunciation of the EU as an “enemy” was no slip of the tongue. Rather, it reflects a central pillar of the original Cold War: the marginalizing tendency of East-West tension. The US dream of rebuilding the old Cold War alliance will be difficult to achieve, and the US theory of spheres of influence is but a distant dream.

今天的社会已远不是乔治·凯南所在的那个年代，凡有点政治头脑的人都会看到，全球化、信息化、产业链、价值链已成为不可阻挡的历史发展潮流。冷战与你中有我、我中有你的国际社会格格不入。有人想把当前讹诈式的贸易战以冷战形式延续下去，这是与时代主旋律唱反调。任何国家的人民和企业都会站出来反对。技术封锁也好，极限施压也罢，强征关税也好，挑起汇率战也罢，对中国这样已经并将进一步敞开大门搞建设的国度都会变得毫无意义。

The era of George Kennan is long gone, and anyone with even a modicum of political savvy realizes that globalization, IT application, industry chains and value chains are irresistible historical trends. A cold war is incompatible with the inseparable nature of the international community or free market practices. Some people wish to continue the current extortionate trade war in the form of a cold war, which goes against the historical tide. The people and businesses of all countries oppose this. Technological blockades, extreme pressure, punitive tariffs and provoking a currency war will not work against a country such as China that has already opened and continues to open further its doors to the world.

笔者还想提醒那些热衷于同中国打冷战的人，在地缘经济和地缘安全问题上，同美国一样，中国同样拥有自己广阔的战略纵深。在地缘战略的总体环境上，当今中国可能越来越比美国显得更有优势。今年G7峰会和北约峰会上，特朗普总统忙不停地在内部进行“清理”、“算账”，处处树敌。中国奉行不结盟政策，但与世界许多国家已经形成各有特色的合作伙伴关系，共谋发展。结伴同行，这是一股清新的历史潮流。

I would remind those keen on fighting a cold war with China that, like the US, China has its own strategic maneuverability when it comes to geo-economic and geo-security issues. In terms of overall geopolitical strategy, China today has an increasingly clear advantage over the US. Although it appears that the US has many allies, at the G7 and NATO summits this year, Trump spent his time sorting out problems and settling scores, creating enemies everywhere he went. China, on the other hand, pursues a policy of nonalignment, but it enjoys special partnerships with many countries around the world. Working together toward common goals has thus become a new historical trend.

冷战还有一条隐蔽的战线，那就是搞和平演变，搞颜色革命，把变天的希望寄托在未来一代人身上。这一点，美国一些机构早就打着各种旗号明里暗里在做了。中国也确有不少人崇拜美国。但这些丝毫影响不了自强不息的中华儿女，中国特色的社会主义市场经济道路将越走越宽。中国特色社会主义理论和实践让亿万民众有了日益增多的获得感和幸福感，这是一道牢不可破的新时代防火长城，抵御着内外各种不健康思潮的侵蚀。任何改变中国颜色和分裂中国的图谋都不会得逞。

There is also a hidden front within the new cold war. That is, a group that wishes to see China evolve peacefully and for it to change its political persuasion. For this, they pin their hopes on the future generations. There are indeed some people in China who worship the US, but they have limited influence on the Chinese people who still believe in constantly striving for self-improvement. It is simply that the path of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics is getting wider acceptance because, as they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The idea of serving the country has been ingrained in its people, because the notion of noblesse oblige was part of the ethic of Chinese people since Confucian times. The successful implementation of socialism with Chinese characteristics has instilled in the Chinese people with great pride and gratitude for the untold benefits it brought them. This has created an impenetrable, albeit intangible, new Great Wall around China that is capable of resisting the erosion of unhealthy thoughts generated inside and outside China. Any attempt to change China's political system or divide the country will inevitably fail.

中国将集中精力、坚定不移地做好自己的事，推动构建新型国际关系，打造人类命运共同体，坚决反对和努力避免冷战。这些将成为中国在处理国际关系中的最高境界。

China will determinedly and unswervingly stick to its chosen path to success. It will continue to expand its cordial international relations with a view to creating a harmonious global community with a shared future, and resolutely opposing and working hard to avoid a cold war.

作者：陈永龙，中国国际问题研究基金会美国研究中心主任

（来源：中美聚焦网，编辑：Helen）