“24个纽约市”被烧……这场山火到底该咋灭？美媒：要根治还得喊上中国

美国加州的一场大火，蔓延了近一个月。

截至目前，已造成至少36人丧生，数万人逃离家乡，烧毁了超过460万英亩的土地，相当于24个纽约市……

有人甚至在情急之下跳入冰冷的湖水中，等了将近10个小时才得救……

然而，特朗普政府却对问题视而不见：

天气很快就会凉快的，你就等着瞧吧。

It'll start getting cooler. You just watch.

应对自然灾害，美国就只能坐以待毙，指望老天？

好像不只这一条路可以走！

《外交》杂志（Foreign Affairs）在近日发表的文章中，为美国指了另一条路——喊上中国！

这篇题为《从气候层面反对“脱钩”——中美关系恶化将使环境保护难上加难》的文章开篇就点明，应对气候变化，中国的参与不可或缺。

文章明确表示，继续与中国互通才是解决气候危机的唯一明确途径。而与中国“脱钩”，无异于杀鸡取卵、竭泽而渔。

Continuing to engage with China represents the only clear path to addressing the climate crisis. Decoupling, in contrast, would mean pursuing a small victory in the short term and courting disaster in the long term.

文章称，应对气候变化最有希望的方式，就是成立一个由主要经济体组成的“气候俱乐部”。

But the most promising way to tackle climate change—the formation of a "climate club" of major economies…

如果与中国“脱钩”，美国及其合作伙伴几乎不可能建立强有力的激励机制吸引中国加入气候俱乐部，从而彻底失去预防最恶劣环境破坏问题的希望。

Decoupling would make it almost impossible for the United States and its partners to create strong incentives for China to participate in a climate club and would thus scotch the best hope for preventing the worst-case scenarios of environmental devastation.

气候变化困扰美国

近几十年来，气候变化对美国造成的影响不容小觑。

仅仅气候变化一项，在未来30年，就将给美国带来巨大的直接伤害，包括人员及财产损失等。

…even if one considers only the direct damage that climate change will likely inflict on the United States in just the next 30 years, the cost in terms of lost lives and property will be massive.

忧思科学家联盟（Union of Concerned Scientists）2018年的一份报告显示，未来30年内，美国超过30万个沿海房屋将面临周期性洪灾的风险，这意味着平均每年至少发生26次洪灾（或每两周一次）。

During that time, according to a 2018 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, more than 300,000 coastal homes in the United States will be at risk of chronic flooding, meaning a flood event at least 26 times a year—or every two weeks, on average.

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）最新发布的报告显示，气候变化已经影响到美国经济的各个方面，包括基础设施建设、农业、居民住房和商业房产，以及公众健康和劳动生产力等。

The nearly 200-page report warned that climate change is already impacting or is anticipated to impact "nearly every facet of the economy", from infrastructure, agriculture, and residential and commercial property to people's health and labor productivity.

CFTC委员之一贝南姆（Rostin Behnam）称：“美国正在不断遭受极端天气事件的打击，从西部的大火到中西部的暴雨，再到墨西哥湾的飓风。”

"Extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation from the severe wildfires of the West to the devastating Midwest derecho and damaging Gulf Coast hurricanes," CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam said in a statement.

他还表示：“不断升级的气候事件对我们的金融系统造成直接冲击，破坏经济的持续增长。”

"…escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth."

美国国防部的多项研究表明，气候变化也导致美国国家安全的威胁成倍增加。

From the standpoint of US national security, climate change also represents a threat multiplier, according to numerous studies by the US Department of Defense.

有效的气候政策却沦为政治的牺牲品

尽管如此，美国似乎并未找到应对气候问题的不二法门。

为此，作者发出感慨：很不幸，有效的气候政策已经沦为美国政治困境的牺牲品。

Unfortunately, effective climate policy has fallen victim to a political dilemma in the United States.

这一政治困境指的正是美国政界人士和专家不断讨论的中美“脱钩”问题。

过去几年里，美国政界人士和专家，不断讨论美国是否应该通过切断中美之间的供应链、贸易关系和金融联系，让全球最大的两个经济体“脱钩”，使得世界经济从一个整体分裂成两个独立的势力范围。

The past few years have seen a heated debate among US politicians and analysts about whether the United States should "decouple" from China by severing the supply chains, trade relationships, and financial links that bind together the world's two largest economies, transforming a one-world economy into two separate spheres of influence.

然而，忽略“脱钩”的经济代价是愚蠢的，更愚蠢的是忽视“脱钩”将导致气候变化问题更难得到解决。

…it would be foolish to dismiss the economic costs of decoupling — and even more foolish to ignore the ways in which decoupling would make climate change harder, if not impossible, to address.

首先，“脱钩”代价极其昂贵。供应链将遭到破坏，美国公司在中国市场的销售量将减少，此外，美国大学将失去数十万中国学生。

First, decoupling would be enormously costly. It would disrupt supply chains, reduce the sales figures of US companies in the Chinese markets, and cost American universities hundreds of thousands of Chinese students.

其次，相互依存关系的削弱会增加其自身安全风险：大多数国际关系学者认为，强有力的相互经济联系即使不能完全消除国家间的冲突，也能减少国家间冲突的可能性。

Second, any reduction in interdependence would create security risks of its own: most scholars of international relations believe that strong, mutual economic links reduce the probability of conflict between states, even if they do not eliminate it completely.

美媒给出解决方案：

喊上中国才是唯一途径！

文章称，美国应采取更为明智的外交政策，与欧洲国家一起，建立一个由主要经济体组成的国际气候俱乐部。

The United States should take the first step by working with European countries to create an international climate club of major economies…

俱乐部将要求其成员执行有利于气候的政策，并且对俱乐部以外的所有国家/地区采取关税等边界调整政策。

Membership would obligate countries to enforce certain pro-climate policies, and the club would apply border adjustments, such as tariffs, on all countries outside of the club.

然而，这一策略的成功取决于俱乐部内部的经济规模。只有一个大型集团才能使“脱碳”成为可能。这也意味着，任何成功的气候俱乐部都必须包括中国。

This success of this strategy would depend on the size of the economies inside the club. Only a large group would make sufficient decarbonization possible — and that means that any successful climate club must include China.

所有这一切成立的前提是，美国不与中国经济“脱钩”。

This approach would work, however, only if the United States did not decouple its economy from that of China.

如果两国放弃过去30年来如此紧密联系的贸易和投资，华盛顿将无法轻易说服北京加入气候俱乐部。

If the two countries were to walk away from the trade and investment that have so thoroughly linked them for the past three decades, Washington would have no easy way to persuade Beijing to join the climate club…

编辑：胡雨濛

实习生：李子仪