专家预测：中国货币政策将继续保持稳健宽松 Analysts stay upbeat on prospects for economy

近期国内多地出现聚集性疫情，加之国际地缘政治不稳定因素显著增加，我国企业生产经营活动受到一定影响。3月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均降至收缩区间，表明我国经济总体景气水平有所回落。但分析人士仍对中国经济中长期前景持乐观态度。专家预测，未来几个月，政府将出台更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，进一步提振经济增长。

China's manufacturing activities contracted in March for the first time in five months due to various uncertainties and negative impacts from home and abroad.
受国内外多重不稳定因素影响，3月份中国制造业活动出现五个月来的首次收缩。

However, analysts and officials remain upbeat about the medium- and long-term prospects of the Chinese economy, as the country still has room for macro policy fine-tuning and adjustments.
然而，分析人士和官员对中国经济中长期前景仍持乐观态度，认为中国宏观经济政策仍有作为空间。

They expected a stronger fiscal policy and more easing monetary measures in the coming months to further shore up growth, including tax reductions, more infrastructure investment, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts.
他们预测，未来几个月，政府将出台更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，包括减税、增加基础设施投资、下调存贷款基准利率和存款准备金率，进一步提振经济增长。

The purchasing managers index for China's manufacturing sector stood at 49.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, slipping into contraction after staying in expansionary territory for four consecutive months. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
国家统计局数据显示，3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5，而2月份为50.2。中国制造业PMI在连续四个月保持扩张态势后，开始下滑。PMI以50点为“荣枯分水线”。

The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors, was at 48.4 versus 51.6 in February, slipping into contraction for the first time in seven months, according to the NBS.
根据国家统计局数据，涵盖服务业和建筑业的非制造业PMI为48.4，2月份为51.6，七个月来首次出现收缩。

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS, said the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that affected some areas has dealt a blow to service sectors, such as transportation, accommodations and catering.
国家统计局高级统计师赵庆河表示，国内部分地区疫情出现反弹，给交通运输业和餐饮业等服务行业带来冲击。

For manufacturers, the resurgence has affected the production and operation of some enterprises, and the escalating geopolitical tensions led to a decline in or the cancellation of export orders, Zhao said.
赵庆河称，疫情反复使部分制造业企业的生产经营受到影响，不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势导致出口订单减少或取消。

Zhao added that midstream and downstream enterprises are also facing pressure from the rising costs of raw materials, with surging commodity prices clouding the outlook.
他表示，中下游企业也面临着原材料成本上涨的压力，大宗商品价格大幅上涨给行业前景蒙上阴影。

However, businesses remained upbeat about future business prospects, Zhao said. The enterprises surveyed said that suppressed demand and production would gradually recover with the government's effective measures to control the pandemic, and the market is likely to rebound.
不过，赵庆河表示，企业对未来的商业前景仍持乐观态度。调查企业反映，随着疫情得到有效控制，受抑制的产需将会逐步恢复，市场有望回暖。

Despite the downward pressures, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, highlighted that the high-tech manufacturing PMI had stayed in expansionary territory, saying this indicates the steady progress of economic structural transformation and high-quality development.
粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒强调，尽管面临经济下行压力，但高科技制造业PMI一直处于扩张区间，这表明经济结构转型和高质量发展稳步推进。

Luo said the current economic situation requires a proactive fiscal policy, such as promoting the issuance of local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize investment, and more efforts should also be made to ensure the basic livelihood of people affected by COVID outbreaks.
罗志恒认为，当前经济形势下需要采取积极的财政政策，比如加快地方政府专项债券发行，推动基础设施建设和稳定投资，还应该采取更多措施，保障受疫情影响地区人民群众的基本生活。

Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute, estimated that the manufacturing PMI reading may expand above the 50-point mark in the following months with the help of the government's effective measures to control the pandemic and stabilize growth.
财新国际经济研究院副院长吴朝明估计，随着政府采取有效措施控制疫情和稳定增长，未来几个月制造业PMI可能会重回50点以上。

Experts said the intensifying economic headwinds could persuade the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, to launch near-term easing measures such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.
专家表示，为应对经济发展所面临的压力，中国人民银行可能会实施短期宽松政策，下调存款准备金率和政策利率。

At its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, the PBOC declared its determination to stabilize the economy by pledging "more substantial support" for the real economy and efforts to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
3月30日消息称，在中国人民银行货币政策委员会2022年第一季度例会上，中国人民银行宣布其决心稳定经济，承诺为实体经济提供更有力支持，进一步疏通货币政策传导机制。

The statement highlighted the emerging challenges posed by escalating geopolitical tensions and more frequent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, in addition to the lingering pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations.
中国人民银行声明强调，当前国内疫情发生频次有所增多，地缘政治冲突升级，经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。

Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China should stick with a fairly expansionary monetary policy to ensure the stabilization of growth, in spite of overseas central banks' interest rate hikes and potentially higher inflationary pressure.
中国社会科学院高级经济学家余永定表示，尽管海外央行加息，通胀压力可能上升，中国应坚持扩张性货币政策，以确保经济增长稳定。

"The risk of inflation has risen due to changes in the international environment. But monetary tightening won't be the sensible solution to inflation caused by supply shocks," Yu said.
他表示：“国际环境的变化导致通胀风险加剧。但货币紧缩并不是解决供应冲击造成的通货膨胀的明智办法。”

If inflationary pressure worsens amid restrictions on the global commodity supply, responsive measures other than monetary policy should be taken, as tightening monetary policy in such circumstances risks triggering deflation, said Yu, who is also a former member of the PBOC's monetary policy committee.
余永定曾任中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员，他认为，如果在全球商品供应受到限制的情况下通胀压力加剧，则应采取货币政策以外的应对措施，因为在这种情况下收紧货币政策有可能引发通货紧缩。

It is advisable for the PBOC to further ease credit conditions to tide over small and medium-sized enterprises amid difficulties while supporting infrastructure investment by reducing the financing costs of related government bonds, he added.
余永定还表示，中国人民银行宜进一步放宽信贷条件，以帮助中小企业渡过难关，同时通过降低相关政府债券的融资成本来支持基础设施投资。

来源：中国日报
编辑：董静