高盛：未来两年美国经济衰退几率为35% Goldman Sachs sees some risk the U.S. economy will stumble and fall into recession in next 24 months

近日，世界最大投资银行之一美国高盛集团称，美联储想在不引发经济衰退的情况下遏制通货膨胀，难度非常大。高盛经济学家预测，美国经济今后两年间衰退的几率为35%。

There is a real chance that the US economy is going to suffer a recession or “hard landing” in the next two years, according to the economic team at Goldman Sachs.
美国高盛集团经济团队表示，未来两年，美国经济很有可能陷入衰退或“硬着陆”。

The bank’s economists see the odds of a recession at about 15% in the next 12 months, with the odds rising to 35% over the next 24 months.
该投资银行经济学家认为，未来一年美国经济衰退的可能性约为15%，而在未来两年美国经济衰退的可能性将上升至35%。

With inflation above 8% for the first time in forty years, Fed officials say they are laser focused on getting interest rates up.
由于美国通货膨胀率40年来首次超过8%，美联储官员表示正在加息对抗通胀。

One reason recession odds are so low for the next 12 months is that the Fed benchmark rate is so low — in a range of 0.25% – 0.5%. The US central bank ‘s policy rate won’t be up to a “neutral level” that no longer boosts inflation until the end of the year. Moving rates into “restrictive” territory – generally seen as above 2.5% — won’t happen until 2023.
未来12个月美国经济发生衰退的可能性仅为15%，原因之一是美联储的基准利率很低，在0.25％-0.5％的范围内。美联储的政策利率在今年年底前不会达到不再推高通胀的“中性水平”。利率要到2023年才会进入“限制性”区间（通常被认为高于2.5％）。

The Fed wants to try to engineer a soft landing, raising rates enough to cool inflation but not so much as to damage the labor market.
美联储希望设法实现经济软着陆，加息实现通胀降温，但又不至于破坏劳动力市场。

Last week, New York Fed President John Williams said achieving a soft landing would not be easy.
上周，纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示，实现经济软着陆并非易事。

On Monday, William Dudley, his predecessor at the helm of the New York Fed, said a hard landing was inevitable.
前纽约联邦储备银行掌门人威廉·达德利4月18日也表示，美国经济硬着陆是不可避免的。

In their note to clients, Goldman said it didn’t believe a recession was inevitable.
高盛在给客户的报告中称，他们不认为美国经济衰退是不可避免的。

The Fed will benefit by post-covid normalizations in labor supply and durable goods prices. More people coming back into the workforce will cool off wages and with the pandemic easing, households are expected to spend more on vacations and other services.
美联储将从后疫情时代劳动力供应和耐用品价格的正常化中受益。更多人重返工作岗位将使工资下降，随着疫情缓解，预计家庭的度假和其他服务支出将会增加。

The main goal of the Fed’s planned rate hikes is to slow wage growth from its recent 5%-6% pace to at least 4%-4.5%, Goldman said. That would help cool inflation close to the Fed’s 2% target in 2023 and 2024.
高盛表示，美联储计划加息的主要目标是将工资增速从最近的5％-6％放缓至至少4％-4.5％。这将有助于冷却通胀，使其接近美联储2023年和2024年通胀率2%的目标。

The current strong economic momentum also limits the risk of a recession in the near-term, Goldman said.
该机构称，目前强劲的经济动能也限制了近期出现衰退的风险。

But Goldman said that it expects the Fed to raise its benchmark rate up to range of 3- 3.25% before they are able to get inflation under control. This is what raises the odds of a recession, the firm said.
但高盛预测，美联储要把基准利率提高到3-3.25%的范围才能对抗通货膨胀。这会增加经济衰退的可能性。

来源：Market Watch
编辑：董静