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研究:气候变化将让印度和巴基斯坦超级热浪发生率增加100倍 Climate change swells odds of record India, Pakistan heatwaves

中国日报网 2022-05-20 08:00

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近日印度西北部和巴基斯坦遭遇了罕见的超级热浪天气,气温逼近50摄氏度,学校被迫停课,居民只能待在室内或到河里游泳降温,还面临严重的水电短缺。英国气象局的新研究指出,这种异常高温是由气候变化引起的,而且未来天气还会更热,超级热浪的发生率将增加百倍。

 

A girl selling water uses an umbrella to protect herself from the sun as she waits for customers on a hot summer day, in New Delhi, India, April 27, 2022. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis

 

Climate change makes record-breaking heatwaves in northwest India and Pakistan 100 times more likely, a Met Office study finds.

英国气象局的一项研究发现,气候变化导致印度西北部和巴基斯坦的破纪录高温天气的发生频率增加了100倍。

 

The region should now expect a heatwave that exceeds the record temperatures seen in 2010 once every three years.

这一地区以后每三年将会出现一次突破2010年高温纪录的热浪天气。

 

Without climate change, such extreme temperatures would occur only once every 312 years, the Met Office says.

英国气象局指出,如果没有气候变化,这种极端气温每312年才会出现一次。

 

Forecasters say temperatures in north-west India could reach new highs in the coming days.

气象局称,印度西北部的气温将在未来几天再创新高。

 

The new analysis comes as a State of the Climate report from the World Meteorological Organisation, the UN's atmospheric science arm, warns that four key indicators of climate change set new records in 2021 - greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise, ocean heat and ocean acidification.

在这一新分析报告发布之际,世界气象组织的《气候状况报告》警告称,2021年四项关键气候变化指标——温室气体浓度、海平面上升、海洋热量和海洋酸化——均创新纪录。世界气象组织是联合国有关气象的科学机构。

 

The UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres described the report as "a dismal litany of humanity's failure to tackle climate disruption."

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯将《气候状况报告》描述为“关于人类无力解决气候异常局面的冗长而惨淡的陈述”。

 

The extreme pre-monsoon heatwave the region northwest India and Pakistan have suffered in recent weeks eased a little after peak temperatures reached 51C in Pakistan on Saturday.

近几周印度西北部和巴基斯坦地区遭遇的雨季前极端热浪天气在上周六(5月14日)巴基斯坦达到51摄氏度的最高温后稍有缓解。

 

But the heat looks likely to build again towards the end of this week and into the weekend, the Met Office warns.

英国气象局警告称,但是本周末热浪很可能将再次袭来。

 

It says maximum temperatures are likely to reach 50C in some spots, with continued very high overnight temperatures.

英国气象局预测,局部地区最高温可能将达到50摄氏度,这种极高温度将持续到夜间。

 

"Spells of heat have always been a feature of the region's pre-monsoon climate during April and May," says Dr Nikos Christidis, who led the team responsible for the study.

该研究团队的领导人尼科斯·克里斯蒂德斯博士指出:“热浪阵阵一直是该地区在四五月份期间的雨季前气候特征。”

 

"However, our study shows that climate change is driving the heat intensity of these spells making record-breaking temperatures 100 times more likely."

“但是,我们的研究显示,气候变化导致这些热浪天气的最高温打破记录的可能性增加了100倍。”

 

The new study is based on the heatwave that gripped northwest India and Pakistan in April and May 2010 when the region experienced the highest combined April and May average temperature since 1900.

这项新研究基于2010年印度西北部和巴基斯坦遭遇的热浪天气的数据,当时该地区的四五月平均气温创下了1900年以来的最高纪录。

 

It attempts to estimate the extent to which climate change made that and future events more likely.

该研究试图估算出气候变化是否让这种高温天气更频繁地出现。

 

The Met Office managed to assess the impact of future climate change and warns that worse is to come.

英国气象局估算出了未来气候变化对高温天气的影响,并警告称未来天气还会更热。

 

If climate change follows the Met Office's predictions, by the end of the century India and Pakistan can expect similarly high temperatures virtually every year, the study suggests.

研究显示,如果气候变化的走向如英国气象局的预测所示,到本世纪末印度和巴基斯坦几乎每年都会出现类似的高温天气。

 

英文来源:BBC

翻译&编辑:丹妮

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