首页  | 双语新闻

美国科学家开发新算法:可提前一周预测犯罪,准确率高达90% AI Algorithm Predicts Future Crimes One Week in Advance With 90% Accuracy

中国日报网 2022-07-05 08:00


人工智能和机器学习的进步受到各国政府关注,一些国家希望利用这些工具进行预测性用警,以遏制犯罪。近日,芝加哥大学的科学家开发了一种新算法,可以提前一周预测犯罪,准确率约为 90%。


Advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning have sparked interest from governments that would like to use these tools for predictive policing to deter crime. However, early efforts at crime prediction have been controversial, because they do not account for systemic biases in police enforcement and its complex relationship with crime and society.

University of Chicago data and social scientists have developed a new algorithm that forecasts crime by learning patterns in time and geographic locations from public data on violent and property crimes. It has demonstrated success at predicting future crimes one week in advance with approximately 90% accuracy.

The new study was published on June 30, 2022, in the journal Nature Human Behavior.

The new tool was tested and validated using historical data from the City of Chicago around two broad categories of reported events: violent crimes (homicides, assaults and batteries) and property crimes (burglaries, thefts, and motor vehicle thefts).

The new model isolates crime by looking at the time and spatial coordinates of discrete events and detecting patterns to predict future events. It divides the city into spatial tiles roughly 1,000 feet across and predicts crime within these areas instead of relying on traditional neighborhood or political boundaries, which are also subject to bias. The model performed just as well with data from seven other US cities: Atlanta, Austin, Detroit, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Portland, and San Francisco.

Ishanu Chattopadhyay, Assistant Professor of Medicine at UChicago and senior author of the study, is careful to note that the tool’s accuracy does not mean that it should be used to direct law enforcement, with police departments using it to swarm neighborhoods proactively to prevent crime. Instead, it should be added to a toolbox of urban policies and policing strategies to address crime.

“We created a digital twin of urban environments. If you feed it data from happened in the past, it will tell you what’s going to happen in future. It’s not magical, there are limitations, but we validated it and it works really well,” Chattopadhyay said. “Now you can use this as a simulation tool to see what happens if crime goes up in one area of the city, or there is increased enforcement in another area. If you apply all these different variables, you can see how the systems evolves in response.”



中国日报网 英语点津微信
中国日报网 双语小程序