【双语财讯】世行上调2023中国经济增长预期至5.6% World Bank raises China growth forecast to 5.6%

6月6日，世界银行发布了最新一期《全球经济展望》，预计全球增长将从2022年的3.1%放缓至2023年的2.1%。在中国以外的新兴市场和发展中经济体，增长率将从去年的4.1%下降至今年的2.9%。该报告预测中国经济今年增长5.6%，这与世行一月份的预测相比，调高了1.3个百分点。

The World Bank has predicted that China's economy will grow at 5.6 percent this year, up by 1.3 percentage points from its January forecast, while it has revised down projections for most economies, as it sees global growth on a precarious footing amid high interest rates.
世界银行预测2023年中国经济将增长5.6%，较1月预测上调1.3个百分点，同时下调了对大多数经济体增长预期，该机构认为在利率上升的背景下全球增长受到影响。

This prospect for China is more optimistic than that outlined by the International Monetary Fund in April in its World Economic Outlook, which forecast the country's growth to stay at 5.2 percent this year, when the world is embarking on a rocky economic recovery road.
这一预期较国际货币基金组织（IMF）4月份发布的《世界经济展望报告》对中国经济增长的预测更乐观，在世界经济艰难复苏的背景下，IMF预测2023年中国经济增速为5.2%。

In its Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the World Bank said that economic activity in China bounced back in early 2023, spurred by the country's optimized COVID-19 response measures, which drove consumer spending, particularly on domestic services.
世界银行在6日发布的报告称，今年初，随着中国优化疫情防控措施，消费需求得到释放，尤其是国内服务业，推动了中国经济恢复。

China has set a target of around 5 percent for its GDP growth this year. It posted a growth rate of 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, a significant improvement from the 2.9 percent in the last quarter of 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
中国今年设定了5%左右的GDP增长目标。国家统计局数据显示，一季度GDP同比增长4.5%，较2022年第四季度2.9%的增速有明显提高。

Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 percent in 2022 to 2.1 percent in 2023, according to the World Bank report.
世行报告称，预计全球增长将从2022年的3.1%放缓至2023年的2.1%。

This forecast is up by 0.4 percentage points compared with the global lender's January report, as activity in major advanced economies and some emerging markets and developing economies, or EMDEs, did not slow down as much as expected at the turn of the year.
这一预测较1月预测上调0.4个百分点，世行认为，主要发达经济体和一些新兴市场和发展中经济体的活动并没有像年初预期的那样放缓。

"Notably, the rapid reopening of China's economy contributed materially to an upward revision to this year's growth forecast," it said.
报告称：“值得注意的是，中国经济的强劲复苏是上调今年全球增长预期的主要原因。“

On the upside, a more vigorous consumption recovery could support growth for longer than expected in China, where inflation is expected to remain below target, allowing monetary policy to remain mildly accommodative, according to the report.
报告称，中国更强劲的消费复苏对经济增长的支持时间可能长于预期，并且预计中国通胀仍将低于目标水平，从而使货币政策保持宽松。

The World Bank said the key downside risks for China's economy include continuing stress in the real estate sector, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global growth and trade, and the lingering possibility of disruptive COVID-19 waves.

世界银行表示，中国经济面临的主要下行风险包括房地产行业的持续压力、全球增长和贸易放缓幅度超出预期，以及破坏性 COVID-19 浪潮挥之不去的可能性。

In advanced economies, growth is set to contract from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 0.7 percent this year, and remain weak in 2024, the report said.
报告表示，发达经济体的增长速度将从2022年的2.6%收缩至今年的0.7%，并在2024年保持疲软。

The United States' economic growth is poised to decelerate to 0.8 percent in 2024 after growing 1.1 percent in 2023, mainly because of the lingering impact of the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year and a half, the World Bank said in a release.
世界银行认为，美国经济预计今年增长1.1%，明年放缓至0.8%。主要是因为过去一年半利率大幅上升的影响挥之不去。

As for the EMDEs, the World Bank noted that although most of them have seen only limited harm from the recent banking stress in advanced economies, they are now sailing in dangerous waters.
世界银行指出，虽然近来发达经济体的银行业困境给大多数新兴市场和发展中经济体造成的危害较为有限，但形势也具有一定危险性。

With increasingly restrictive global credit conditions, one out of every four EMDEs has lost access to international bond markets, and growth projections for these economies for 2023 are less than half of those made a year ago, making them highly vulnerable to additional shocks.
随着全球信贷条件日趋收紧，新兴市场和发展中经济体当中有四分之一实际已无法通过国际债券市场融资。这些经济体2023年的增长预期不到一年前预测水平的一半，这使它们极易受到额外冲击的影响。

Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, said that in 2023, trade will grow at less than a third of its pace in the years before the pandemic, and that in the EMDEs, debt pressures are growing due to higher interest rates.
世界银行集团首席经济学家兼发展经济学高级副行长英德米特·吉尔表示，2023年的贸易增长速度将不及疫情到来之前的三分之一。在新兴市场和发展中经济体，利率上升正导致债务压力增大。

来源：中国日报
编辑：董静，李蕙帆（实习）