研究显示欧洲央行加息或使欧元区经济下滑3.8% ECB rate hikes might knock 3.8 pct off euro area economy: analysis

彭博社的一项分析指出，鉴于欧元区各国政府已经或将选择退出一年前为应对能源价格飙升而实施的支持措施，欧元区经济在2024年萎缩幅度可能最高达5%。

Aggressive rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) can inflict an adverse impact on the economy of the euro area, and will trim 3.8 percent off from its economic output in 2024, a Bloomberg analysis published on Monday said.

彭博社7日发布的一项研究显示，欧洲央行(ECB)激进的加息可能会对欧元区经济造成不利影响，并将在2024年使其经济下降3.8%。

The analysis said that the combination of high interest rates and limited government capacity to stimulate development poses a potential constraint on the economic growth of the euro area.

分析称，高利率加上政府刺激发展的能力有限，对欧元区经济增长构成了潜在的制约。

Given that governments in the euro area have or will opt out of the supportive measures which were put into place in the face of the surging energy prices over a year ago, the euro area economy can contract up to 5 percent in 2024, the analysis noted.

分析指出，鉴于欧元区各国政府已经或将选择退出一年前为应对能源价格飙升而实施的支持措施，欧元区经济在2024年萎缩幅度可能高达5%。

The ECB has lifted key interest rates by a total of 425 basis points since last July in a bid to bring down inflation, which is hovering well above its target of 2 percent.

自2022年7月以来，欧洲央行已将基准利率总计上调425个基点，以压低目前远高于2%目标的高通胀率。

The central bank has refrained from pre-announcing another hike for its next rate-setting meeting, insisting that interest rates will remain its primary tool in the fight against inflation.

欧洲央行没有在下次利率制定会议前宣布再次加息，但坚称加息仍将是其抗击通胀的主要工具。

The ECB considered the euro area economy to be weak in the short run but said it would pick up momentum in the long run. The central bank will publish its latest edition of projections for inflation as well as economic growth in the euro area in September.

欧洲央行认为欧元区经济增长短期内疲弱，但从长期来看，欧元区经济将恢复增长势头。欧洲央行将于9月份发布对欧元区通胀和经济增长的最新预测。

来源：新华社

编辑：董静、李一凡（实习）