美中俄三角关系牵动全局 US-China-Russia Relations

当今世界局势正在发生诸多新变化，且无不与美中俄三角关系相牵连。而导致这种变化的首要因素，则是美国特朗普政府的做法过于离谱。

The Trump administration's outrageous behavior has changed the US-China-Russia relationship, and so, the world.

8月以来，美国政府不断抛出挑衅中国和遏制俄罗斯的举措。例如，8月7日宣布完成对价值160亿美元中国进口商品加征新关税的计划，拟于8月23日起生效；8月8日把“毒气门”事件抖了出来，加大对俄罗斯的制裁；8月9日白宫宣布计划到2020年组建一支太空军，作为第六个作战军种，宣称这是因为中俄展示的能力构成了“前所未有的新危险”；8月13日特朗普签署2019年度国防授权法案，军费总额达到7160亿美元，比上年增长2.6%，为九年来最大涨幅，等等。

Since early August, the Trump administration has constantly introduced measures to provoke China and contain Russia. It announced an additional $16 billion tariff plan on imports from China; it brought up the ex-spy poisoning case again, and increased sanctions on Russia; it announced a plan to build a space force by 2020 as a new military branch to counter 'unprecedented new dangers' posed by China and Russia; it increased US military expenditure by 2.6% from the previous year, the largest increase in 9 years.

人们不得不思考如此搅局带来的后果。

People must think about the possible consequences.

先谈美国对华关系。美方挑起贸易战，远非像美国政府自夸的那样“成功”。8月4日美国福布斯网站刊载署名文章《美国正打赢对华贸易战是危险的胡话》，文章称，天真的美国政府贸易团队对自己似乎击中了中国的要害感到有点飘飘然。这个团队明显低估了中国人的决心、信念以及耐心。8月7日IMF首席经济学家奥布斯特费尔德称，美国试图通过加征关税来削减贸易逆差的做法是误入歧途，美国贸易逆差的根源不在贸易本身而在于宏观经济。

First, on relations with China. The trade war waged by the US has not been successful.Let me just cite two examples. On 4 August, Forbes published a bylined article The Dangerous Myth The US Is Winning The Trade War with China, stating that the naïve Trump trade team is becoming a bit giddy about seemingly making inroads into the belly of the China trade beast while underestimating the determination, the conviction, and patience of the Chinese. On 7 August, IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld described the US' new tariffs on imports from China to reduce its trade deficit as misguided. The root cause of the US trade deficits lies not in trade per se but rather in the macro economy.

美国政府应该明白，中美贸易额占中国外贸总额约15%，中国对美国之外的国际贸易存在巨大增长潜力，中国经济本身仍有尚未开发的巨大潜能。中国有信心有能力应对各种风险挑战。

The Trump administration should be aware of three basic facts: trade with the US is about 15% of China's external trade; there is huge potential for it to increase its trade with other countries; and there is still enormous untapped potential in the Chinese economy. Therefore, China has the confidence and capacity to deal with various risks and challenges.

面对中美关系的严峻性，有人说美国对华战略在发生质变，论据是影响当前美国对华政策最重要的非常规因素（特朗普现象）与最重要的常规因素（两国实力对比与相互认知）的加速变迁在2017年底出现了汇合，从而在美国政治精英中形成一种自尼克松访华以来前所未有的对华负面共识，在这种共识的推动下，美国对华政策正在经历质变。

Some people believe that America's China strategy is changing fundamentally. They argue that the most important unconventional factor (the Trump phenomenon) and the most important conventional factor (the desire for a balance of power) shaping the US' China policy have combined to form a negative view of China unseen since President Richard Nixon's trip to China in 1972.

也有另一种看法，认为中美贸易关系不会走向全面对抗，因为当前中美贸易关系是深度交融、相互依赖的。在全球经济体制下，通过国际贸易、国际投资、人员交往和人力资本互通这三条重要渠道，中美两国经济之间存在着千丝万缕的联系。

Others don't think China and the US' trade relations will lead to full confrontation, because their two economies are deeply intertwined and interdependent. Within the global economic regime, the two economies have developed countless ties through trade, investment, and exchanges of personnel and human capital.

笔者深信，中美关系的大框架不会轻易改变。其一，双方互有长远的利益需要，且难说谁的需要更多。其二，美国对华历来采取接触加遏制的方针，且交替使用。当下美国气势汹汹，一旦痛定思痛，又会接触。吓唬中国人从来不管用。其三，中国对美国的政策稳定性极强，尽管现在对方烦躁不安，甚至气急败坏，但人们看到习近平主席却不动声色，稳如泰山。

I deeply believe that the overall framework of China-US relations will not easily change. First, the two countries need each other for their long-term interests. It is not a situation where one country needs the other more. Second, towards China, the US has always combined engagement with containment and used the two alternately. Though seemingly in full fury now, the US will return to engagement again when memories of painful past experiences come back. Attempts to scare the Chinese have never worked. Third, Chinese policy towards the US is super stable. In front of the agitated and sometimes flustered US, President Xi Jinping is still composed and firm like a rock.

美方应该懂得一个通俗的道理：中国无意改变美国，也不想取代美国；美国无法左右中国，更不可能阻止中国的发展。中美两大经济体加强合作，不仅事关中美两国，也是国际社会之需，是世界人民所盼。

The US must understand that China does not intend to change or replace it and that it cannot determine China's positions or prevent it from development. Increased collaboration between the two largest economies in the world not only affects them but is also needed by the international community and desired by all people in the world.

再谈美国对俄关系。微妙的是，特朗普既想与普京亲近，却又不停地制裁俄罗斯。矛盾纠结，章法混乱。

Now, onto US-Russia relations. The US is imposing more sanctions on China while Trump wants to develop a closer relationship with Putin.

美国应该了解，普京主导下的俄罗斯有几条原则是不会变的。一是要把俄罗斯打造成世界一流国家；二是要建立适合俄罗斯国情的发展模式；三是奉行全方位外交，反对单极世界。普京雄心勃勃，但前进道路上障碍重重。俄方希望与美国保持“建设性关系”。

The US should be aware that a Russia led by Vladimir Putin will follow several principles. First, Russia will strive to become a first-class country. Second, Russia will explore a development model suited to its national conditions. Third, Russia will oppose a unipolar world. Putin is ambitious despite the many obstacles ahead. Russia wishes to maintain a 'constructive relationship' with the US.

特朗普对俄竭力诱惑，试图“联俄反中”。对此俄罗斯心知肚明，绝对不会舍本求末。俄罗斯战略研究所网站7月27日的文章称，美国领导人试图离间俄罗斯与中国，但俄罗斯不会被特朗普的阿谀奉承和微笑“融化”。

President Trump has done everything he can to pull Russia into an alliance against China. An article published on 27 July on the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies website describes US behavior as sowing discord between Russia and China and declares that Russia will not be 'melted' by Trump's flattery and smiles.

中俄关系的成熟性和稳定性，让美国嫉妒、担忧，其实是多余的。美国对华对俄“两个拳头打人”，结果推动中俄关系更加紧密。

The level of maturity and stability of China-Russia relations causes US envy and concern, which is rather unnecessary. Attempts to fight Russia and China at the same time have contributed to a closer relationship between the two.

传统因素、现实因素和特殊因素，使美中俄三角关系牵动着世界全局。美国方面不要认为维系世界霸权是天经地义的，不要把中国坚持和平发展、和平共处视为软弱，不要仅从经济增长速度看低俄罗斯，更不要忽视联合国的核心地位，得意时凌驾于联合国之上，失意时置身于联合国之外。

The US should not try to sustain its hegemony all over the world, obstruct China's pursuit of peaceful development, or look down on Russia on the basis of its economic growth. More importantly, it should not ignore the central role of the UN.

世界形势风云变幻，不确定性固然是常态，但和平发展毕竟是时代主流，合作共赢已成全球共识。世界上的事情纷繁复杂，不是做生意，打打杀杀不是全球治理的办法。“吃一堑长一智”对特朗普政府应该是适用的。

The world situation is changing all the time, and there are a lot of uncertainties. Yet peaceful development is still the mainstream and win-win cooperation is pursued by all. Fighting is not a means of global governance. The Trump administration should learn from its mistakes.

作者：俞邃，中国当代世界研究中心教授

（来源：中美聚焦网，编辑：Helen）