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7 experts on what worries them about China

中国日报网 2014-02-26 09:51





Chinese GDP growth slowed to 7.7% last year, hitting its lowest level since 1999.

Some of the biggest issues we're seeing in the headlines these days are concerns over shadow banking, rising local government debt, and trust defaults.

The credit crunch China experienced last year, and the worry that deleveraging could trigger a hard landing is also getting a lot of attention.

We asked six China experts the same question. What worries you the most about China? Here are their responses:

Alaistair Chan, Moody's: "The central bank’s campaign to cut risky lending practices and over-leverage in the financial sector via monetary tightening is a big concern. The PBoC seems to have learned from the June 2013 Shibor scare, but it is still unclear how monetary tightening against a backdrop of potential defaults in corporate bonds this year will unfold."

David Cui, Bank of America: "Debt growth and corporate sector solvency issue."

Patrick Chovanec, Silvercrest Asset Management: "I'm worried that Chinese leaders actually believe it when they say everything is under control. The clock is fast running out on China's tactic of using runaway credit to fuel investment-led growth.

"At best China faces a growth squeeze from a mounting burden of bad debt, at worse that bad debt will blow up in its face. Either way, China faces a wrenching economic adjustment. If China's leaders recognize not just the direction but also the urgency of change, they have some hope of getting to the other side. If they kid themselves into complacency, they are courting disaster."

George Magnus, Formerly UBS: "Among many things that worry me, the most urgent issue is if, how and under what circumstances China will tame credit creation and put a troublesome genie back in the bottle. We've had a few trust loan defaults that haven't caused a big stir yet, but there have been a couple of depositor bail outs that don't point to a determined attempt to curb the excess yet.

"There's a tension between the PBoC and the China Banking regulatory Commission over shadow banking restraint. I expect credit to slow and to lead to slower growth. I worry that the authorities will try to soft pedal this, leading to a bigger denouement later."

Jim Rogers, Rogers Holdings: "The high levels of debt in some areas. Some of the provinces and companies have built up debt in recent years during the recovery, since there has been so very much artificial liquidity all over the world. All the money printing in the developed world is causing distortions everywhere including China."

Tom Orlik, Bloomberg: "The biggest worry about China this year is the state of the financial system. Massive credit growth has left banks overexposed, and as the economy slows the cracks are starting to show."

Bill Bishop, Sinocism: "A. Environmental crises: air, water, soil, food. There are and will continue to be huge opportunities for investors and companies in cleaning up the mess, but the human toll is massive and will get worse before it gets better. It could lead to significant unrest but more likely will lead to cancer epidemics and emigration by those who can afford to;

B. Corruption. Xi's crackdown on official corruption is serious and having an effect. Of course there are political reasons and scores to settle, but the crackdown has changed behavior. It has not however addressed the corruption that is pervasive in Chinese society, and it is hard though to see how that can be changed materially in the midst of increasing restriction on public discourse and transparency;

C. Ideological retrenchment. No, Xi is not a "neo-Maoist", but he is a pragmatic Marxist and there is a broader tightening of discourse and more aggressive rejection of "Western" values and Neo-liberalism than we have seen in a while. But most people here do not believe in Marxism and a Marxist morality campaign will not work. So the real glue is nationalism, and that has only grown stronger, intentionally, over the years;

D. Growing anti-foreign, and especially anti-American, sentiment as more and more people are told, and start to believe, that the West is trying to keep China down and prevent its rejuvenation. Tensions from an economic slowdown, economic reform/restructuring and/or the corruption crackdown and its political re-ordering could lead to even more external friction than would normally be expected with a rising power. Geoff Dyer's new book "The Contest of the Century: The New Era of Competition with China" is worth reading."






穆迪公司阿来斯蒂尔·钱(Alaistair Chan):“中央银行通过货币紧缩降低金融行业风险信贷以及过度杠杆化的行动非常令人担忧。中国人民银行似乎已经汲取了2013年上海银行间同业拆放利率恐慌的教训,但尚不清楚在公司债券方面针对潜在违约的货币紧缩政策将如何展开。”

美洲银行的戴维·崔(David Cui):“债务增长以及企业部门的偿付能力问题。”

Silvercrest资产管理公司帕特里克·乔维尼克(Patrick Chovanec)。“我担心中国领导人在说一切都在掌控下时,他们实际上真的相信这一点。中国利用失控的信贷维持投资引导型经济增长,这种策略正在迅速走向末日。”


UBS的乔治·马格努斯(George Magnus):“在令我担心的许多事情当中,最为紧迫的是中国是否会并在什么样的条件下驯服信贷创造,将制造麻烦的妖魔重新放回瓶子里。我们已经看到了一些信托贷款违约事件,但没有造成很大轰动,不过,已经有了两三件存款人救助的案例,但这些案例并还未显示出消除过分信贷的坚定努力。”


罗杰斯控股(Rogers Holdings)吉米·罗杰斯:“有些地区存在的高债务问题。在最近几年的经济恢复期间,因为整个世界范围内存在非常高的人为流动性,一些省市和公司债务水平大幅提高。发达国家印发的所有货币在包括中国在内所有国家里制造了扭曲。”

彭博社汤姆·奥立克(Tom Orlik):“有关中国今年最大的担心是金融体系的状况。巨大规模的信贷增长将银行过度地暴露在风险之下,随着经济放缓,裂痕已经开始显现。”





(译者 Ringohan 编辑 丹妮)



















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