专家：中国外贸今年有望实现稳定增长 Stable growth of foreign trade expected

中国贸促会日前发布的《2022年第二季度中国外贸形势调研报告》显示，随着国内疫情防控形势总体向好，稳增长的政策措施效果逐步显现，外贸运行出现积极变化。

China's foreign trade is expected to post stable growth this year, despite unprecedented challenges, including high raw material costs and fierce competition from Southeast Asian countries, analysts and trade experts said on Wednesday.

分析师和贸易专家6月29日称，尽管面临史无前例的挑战，包括原材料价格高企和来自东南亚国家的激烈竞争，中国外贸今年有望实现稳定增长。

The profitability of exporters in most sectors has improved during the second quarter, according to a survey by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade in Beijing. Major challenges facing foreign trade enterprises, such as high costs of logistics, have eased, the survey showed.

中国国际贸易促进委员会的一项调查显示，今年二季度大部分行业出口利润情况比一季度好转，物流成本高企等外贸企业面临的主要问题有所改善。

"It is worth noting that trade data got better not only from quarter to quarter, but also from month to month during the second quarter. June is likely to have witnessed a strong foreign trade rebound and more energetic economic recovery," said Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英指出，值得注意的是外贸数据不只是相对上季度有所好转，而且二季度的每个月的数据都比前一月更好。6月可能将出现对外贸易的强劲反弹和更有力的经济复苏。

The survey showed more than 25 percent of enterprises registered positive quarter-on-quarter revenue growth, while nearly 20 percent said they have secured profit growth from a quarter ago.

调查显示，25.43%的企业贸易额环比增长，19.98%的企业利润环比增加。

More than 26 percent of the respondents are confident about year-on-year revenue growth, and about 28 percent said they expect their revenues to be at least the same as last year's level.

26.22%的企业预计全年贸易额实现增长，28.17%的企业认为至少与去年持平。

Liu predicted that China's foreign trade is likely to exceed 40 trillion yuan ($5.97 trillion) this year, with policy measures showing off the advantages of the nation's resilient supply and industrial chains.

刘英预计，在有利于发挥中国供应链产业链韧性优势的政策措施支持下，今年中国外贸额有望突破40万亿元。

The exporters also benefited from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement, which took effect on Jan 1, and interest rate increases by the United States, which Liu believes will facilitate China's exports.

刘英认为，1月1日生效的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）也让出口商从中受益，美国利率的上调对中国出口也会起到促进作用。

The survey found that new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce provided strong support to export growth, and the nation's policies to ease the burdens of foreign trade enterprises, such as ensuring smooth logistics and speeding up tax and fee reductions, have boosted the sector as well.

调查发现，跨境电商等贸易新业态对出口增长提供了强有力的支持，国家减轻外贸企业负担的政策，比如确保物流畅通和加速落实减税降费，也促进了外贸行业的发展。

More than 40 percent of enterprises in the survey said they have become familiar with RCEP rules, up 17.69 percentage points from the first quarter. About 54 percent plan to use those rules for their benefit.

调查涵盖的企业中超40%表示熟悉RCEP规则，比一季度上升了17.69个百分点。约54%的企业计划运用RCEP规则为自己的利益服务。

The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade has also issued 43,600 RCEP certificates of origin for more than 10,000 enterprises.

中国贸促会还签发了RCEP原产地证书43600份，办证企业累计超过1万家。

Zhao Shengmei, general manager of Newcom Group, a bag and travel luggage manufacturer in Pinghu, Zhejiang province, said the company currently is recruiting more workers as orders in the first half of 2022 have already reached the whole-year level of 2021.

浙江平湖箱包生产商新秀集团的总经理赵胜梅表示，该公司目前正在招聘更多员工，因为2022年上半年的订单量已经达到了2021年全年的水平。

A report released on Wednesday by the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, showed that the export order index came in at 41 percent in the second quarter, down 9.6 percentage points from the same period in 2021. The figure increased by just 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter of the year.

中国人民银行6月29日发布的报告显示，我国二季度的出口订单指数为41%，相比2021年同期下降了9.6个百分点，只比一季度上升0.1个百分点。

Liu Xiangdong, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said Vietnam's fast export growth will not threaten China's position in the global supply chain in the short term due to their closely integrated industrial chains.

中国国际经济交流中心研究员刘向东表示，越南出口的快速增长短期内不会威胁到中国在全球供应链中的地位，因为二者的产业链是紧密结合在一起的。

He said China must enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and work with neighboring countries to mitigate risks and boost export volume in high-end manufacturing.

刘向东表示，中国必须增强产业链韧性，通过与邻国合作来化解风险，提高高端制造业的出口量。

英文来源：中国日报

翻译&编辑：丹妮