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金融时报:两会热点问题大盘点
What to watch for at the annual session of China’s parliament

[ 2014-03-04 09:40] 来源:中国日报网     字号 [] [] []  
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Each year in early March, thousands of delegates to China’s official lawmaking and top political advisory bodies gather in Beijing to rubber-stamp laws and policies decided by the country’s ruling Communist party.

And every year there is discussion about whether or not these gatherings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress remain just a political pageant, or if the party is allowing more debate and consultation to creep into the process of “democracy with Chinese characteristics”.

The opening of the NPC in the morning on March 5 will see Premier Li read out his first government work report since he took office a year ago. The three-hour speech, in front of thousands of delegates and media in the Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square, is said to be so gruelling that ageing Premiers in the past have had to be trained for hours to stand and read aloud without stopping to drink or take breaks.

The government’s 2014 annual budget will also be released in the morning on March 5.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, will give a press conference that will be closely watched for hints about China’s plans for interest rate liberalisation and capital account opening.

On March 13 the NPC will hold its closing ceremony and then Premier Li will greet the public and the world for the premier’s annual press conference. This highly scripted event provides the key talking points that the government wants to convey to the nation and the outside world.

This year’s sessions will be watched especially closely as they are the first to be held since President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang formally took the reins of government at last year’s meetings. While the unveiling of any radical new policy agenda is unlikely, the nation will be watching for progress on the key reforms outlined by the Party during two important meetings late last year.

Growth targets: Of particular interest will be the figures Beijing announces as its growth targets for 2014. Most analysts expect the government to leave these unchanged from last year by announcing a growth target of 7.5 per cent, an inflation target of less than 3.5 per cent and M2 money supply growth of 13 per cent.

Any changes to these figures, which should be announced at the opening of the NPC on March 5, could provide a useful insight into how robust the leadership thinks the economy will be this year and how willing they are to accept lower rates of growth as they try to reform the country’s economic model.

Real estate policy: After years of ineffectual attempts to rein in overheated growth in the country’s booming property markets, there are some signs that China’s new leaders are preparing their own policies to bring down prices in residential markets, a perennial source of discontent among the country’s growing urban population.

The annual government report from the premier is often used to announce such policies.

Ethnic policies: Vicious knife attacks carried out by ethnic separatists from the rebellious Chinese region of Xinjiang on Saturday night left 29 innocent bystanders dead and 140 more injured. The attacks have thrown a spotlight on China’s repressive policies towards ethnic minorities and highlighted the simmering discontent among increasingly radicalised populations in the vast western stretches of the country.

The most likely response at the forthcoming political meetings will be expressions of resolve to “strike hard” and retaliate with “iron resolve” but look for any subtle change in wording in references to ethnic policy or any suggestion that China’s own policies may be responsible for the rise in violent separatist attacks.

State-owned companies reform: The government has said it wants to open up the state-owned sector to greater investment from private companies, but so far most moves in this direction appear to have been largely symbolic. Investors at home and abroad will be looking for signs of more serious commitment to reductions in state ownership in key areas of the country including energy, telecoms, transport and finance.

Pollution: Continued shocking levels of pollution across the country are expected to be high on the agenda at the meetings, especially after Beijing has just emerged from nearly two weeks of thick choking smog that prompted rare expressions of anger in China’s own state media.

The skies over Beijing traditionally clear for the opening of the political meetings as the party takes cars off the road, shuts down factories and uses artificial rain to make sure that nothing spoils the picture of a grand, harmonious and efficient governing structure. But even if the delegates themselves probably will not have to breathe the usually poisonous air, government plans to deal with the issue are still expected to be high on the agenda.

Foreign relations: Rising tension with Japan is likely to get at least a mention during the political sessions and Chinese warnings of heightened “Japanese militarism” could well be used to justify expected double-digit increases in China’s military budget.

Foreign policy analysts and governments throughout the Pacific will be watching to see if Beijing tones down or ramps up the rhetoric directed at Tokyo and also its neighbours bordering the disputed South China Sea.

Local government debt: The huge burden of debt built up by local governments across the country will be addressed at the meetings and particularly in Premier Li’s work report and in the annual budget. Local governments are likely to be given the go-ahead to issue more municipal bonds to allow them to better balance their books and reduce their reliance on borrowing from China’s state-owned banks.

Shadow banking: The rise of China’s huge, shadowy and largely unregulated alternative financial sector is a source of great concern to China’s leaders and to global investors alike, and the topic is likely to be addressed during the two meetings. New regulations and perhaps the assigning of responsibility for regulating the issue could both emerge during the 10 days of political jawboning.

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每年的三月上旬,全国两会都会在北京召开,数千名代表齐聚一堂共商国事,制定政策。

每年,社会上都流传着这样两种声音:两会的召开仅仅就是一场政治聚会;两会的召开是社会主义民主政治的重要体现,执政党以此听取广大代表意见推进民主进程。


今年的人民代表大会备受关注,因为这是习近平主席和李克强总理自去年上任以来第一次代表大会。尽管我们无法具体了解所有新的基本政策规划,我们却能够看到自去年以来国家在大项重点改革中取得的进步。


3月5日上午,全国人民代表大会将在人民大会堂召开。会上,李克强总理将宣读2013年度政府工作报告,这是他任期第一年的政府工作总结。在代表和媒体记者面前做3小时的报告是一件相当煎熬的事情,以往,年迈的总理不得不为此提前训练,锻炼长时间站立和做报告中不喝水休息的能力。


同时,当天早上还将公布2014年度政府财政预算。中国人民银行行长周小川将召开记者发布会答记者问,解答关于利率市场化和资本账户开放的问题。


全国人大将于3月13日闭幕。届时,李克强总理将召开新闻发布会,会见国内外媒体代表,解读会议关键点,向世界传达中国声音。


经济增长目标

人们最关注的问题就是2014年的经济增长目标。多数专家分析今年的目标将于上一年度相同,经济增长7.5个百分点,通胀指数控制在3.5个百分点以下,M2货币供应量增长13个百分点。在大会开幕当天,上述数据是否发生改变将反映国家对于经济实力的信心是否充足,是否愿意全面推进经济转型,接受较低的经济增长。


房地产政策

每年的政府工作报告中都会提及与房地产有关的政策。尽管经过多方调控,中国房地产价格依旧持续走高。有迹象表明,中国新一届领导集体将制定政策,降低居民住宅价格,消解长久以来城市居民的不满。


民族政策


3月1日晚,昆明发生持刀砍人恶性事件,目前事件造成29人死亡,140余人受伤,初步判定事件由新疆民族分裂势力策划。这场袭击引发人们对于中国少数民族政策的关注,同时突出表现了中国西部地区激进分子人数不断增长,不满情绪不断积聚。在即将召开的会议上,代表意见将倾向“严厉打击”,同时代表们也会对民族政策进行修订,及时应对已经暴露的问题。


国有企业改革


政府希望开放国有企业,吸引更多民间资本,可惜目前大部分举措未发挥实质性作用。与此同时,海内外投资商希望看到在能源、通信、交通和金融等重点领域出台更多优惠政策。


环境污染


环境污染是此次会议重点关注的问题之一,特别是本次会议召开前两周,北京刚刚历经了持续雾霾天气。据国内媒体报道,雾霾天让许多人对现阶段环境水平表示不满。会议召开期间,由于车辆限制、工厂暂时停工和使用人工降雨,蓝天白云交相辉映,确保整个会议不受环境污染的影响。然而,即便空气质量优化,代表们感受不到污染,积极谋划解决应对环境问题的方案依旧是本次会议的重点。


外交政策


两会中一定会涉及中日两国的紧张局势,为应对日本军国主义,中国军费开支呈两位数增长态势十分合理。外交政策专家和太平洋国家将密切关注中国如何应对与日本等邻国发生的领土争端问题,是采取强硬政策还是温和政策?


地方政府债务


会上会报告地方政府债务情况,这一数据在政府工作报告和财政预算中都将涉及。地方政府很可能继续发行市政债券来平衡开支,减少对国有银行的依赖。


影子银行系统


中国政府和全球投资者十分关注中国日益庞大的缺乏监管的非银行金融机构,这也是此次两会关注的焦点之一。新政策以及管理机构也许会在接下来的十天中诞生。
(译者:吴溦 编辑:齐磊)

 

 
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