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改革落重笔 增长求精净
China signals focus on reforms and leaner, cleaner growth

[ 2014-03-06 11:23] 来源:中国日报网     字号 [] [] []  
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China sent its strongest signal yet that its days of chasing breakneck economic growth are over, promising to wage a "war" on pollution and reduce the pace of investment to the slowest in a decade as it pursues more sustainable expansion.

In a State of the Union style address to an annual parliament meeting that began on Wednesday, Premier Li Keqiang said China aimed to expand its economy by 7.5 percent this year, the highest level among the world's major economies, but stressed that this level of growth would not get in the way of reforms.

In carefully crafted language that suggested Beijing had thought hard about leaving the forecast unchanged from last year, Li said the world's second-largest economy will pursue reforms stretching from the environment to the financial sector, even as it generates sufficient growth to support incomes and employment.

After 30 years of red-hot double-digit growth that has lifted millions out of poverty but also polluted the country's air and water and saddled the country with ominous debt levels, China is trying to change tack and rebalance its economy.

"Reform is the top priority for the government," Li told around 3,000 hand-picked delegates in his first parliamentary address in a cavernous meeting hall in central Beijing.

"We must have the mettle to fight on and break mental shackles to deepen reforms on all fronts."

Idle factories will be shut, private investment will be encouraged, and work on a new environmental protection tax will be speeded up to create a greener and more balanced economy powered by consumption rather than investment, Li said.

To aid the transformation, China's economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, told parliament that the government will target 17.5 percent growth in fixed-asset investment this year, the slowest in 12 years.

Investment is the largest driver of China's economy and accounted for over half of last year's 7.7 percent growth by expanding 19.6 percent, exceeding an 18 percent target.

Some analysts welcomed the plans for steady economic growth as a sign that the giant Chinese growth engine will stay on an even keel despite its wobbly start for the year.

Regional currency markets were slightly firmer as the news emerged, since there had been concerns Beijing would lower the target toward 7 percent, and investors often over-react to even the smallest of changes in China's outlook.

"While some may view this "target" approach as being past its use-by date, financial markets remain rather sensitive to it as China remains a large unknown," said Annette Beacher, head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities in Singapore.

"Given that GDP growth is expected to be 7.5 percent for "longer", we see this target as supportive for the Asian region, trade, and for commodity currencies more generally."

But other analysts worried that the government's refusal to tolerate slower economic growth was a sign China may not be as bold in its reforms as some had hoped.

"By keeping the target at about 7.5 percent, it's a sign that maybe they are not going to tackle credit growth as quickly as we thought they might," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist at Capital Economics in Singapore.

NATURE'S RED-LIGHT WARNING

At a plenum meeting of the ruling Communist Party last November, China announced ambitious reforms that signaled the shift from investment- and export-fuelled growth towards a slower, more balanced and sustained expansion.

Wednesday's announcements signal that it is well on track, but moving cautiously.

Li, China's first premier with an economics doctorate, said the government would maintain an inflation target of around 3.5 percent for 2014, increase broad M2 money supply by 13 percent, and keep fiscal deficit at 2.1 percent of GDP. All were widely expected.

He repeated the government's standard rhetoric on financial reforms, saying that authorities' grip on the yuan will be gradually relaxed and deposits eventually insured, but did not provide a time line.

On the environment, however, Li did not mince his words.

"Smog is affecting large parts of China and environmental pollution has become a major problem, which is nature's red-light warning against the model of inefficient and blind development," Li said in his address that lasted a little over 100 minutes, in what state media said was the shortest ever.

He said the battle against pollution will be waged via reforms in energy pricing to boost non-fossil fuel power and cutting capacity in the steel and cement sectors which are the sources of much air pollution.

But plans to outdated steel capacity this year comprise less than 2.5 percent of total capacity and will be outstripped by new capacity currently under construction, although this will be more modern and less polluting.

The targeted cement closures also comprise less than 2 percent of last year's total production. Many steel and cement factories have also been shutting down for economic reasons, putting China's willingness to go the extra mile on pollution into question.

Analysts have warned in the past that China will loathe to rock the boat when it comes to reforms for fear of fuelling job losses and undermining social stability. As such, they say difficult changes such as government downsizing or closures of debt-laden factories in sectors gripped by overcapacity are likely to take a back seat.

During the parliament meeting, key government ministries and the central bank will hold a series of press briefings to cover a wide range of economic and social issues.

Li is scheduled to hold a news conference at the end of the parliament meeting on March 13.

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中国政府发出强烈的信号,表示不再追逐经济的高速增长,承诺向污染“宣战”,将投资放缓至近十年最慢速度,争取实现可持续增长。

在周三召开的年度政府会议中,李克强总理的政府工作报告指出,今年中国经济增长目标在7.5%左右,达世界主要经济体中最高水平,但强调这一水平将不会阻碍改革。

李克强总理字斟句酌地阐明了北京在仔细思考后将预测维持在与去年的同等水平上,世界第二大经济体力求将改革从环境拓展到金融领域,即使它产生足以支持收入与就业的增长。

30年来,火热的两位数增长让无数人摆脱贫困,但同时也污染了空气与水,并且给中国缚上沉重的债务负担。中国正试图改弦易辙,重新平衡自身经济。

“改革是政府的第一要务”,李克强在北京中央的大会堂在其任职后第一个议会演讲中对近3000名精挑细选出的代表如是说。

“我们必须有勇气继续战斗,打破思想桎梏,全面深化改革。”

关闭闲置工厂,鼓励私人投资,加速筹划新的环境保护税,以此来创造一个更绿色更平衡的消费型经济,而不是投资导向型经济,李克强说道。

中国的经济策划师,国家发展与改革委员会说,为辅助转型,政府将固定资产投资增长目标定为12年中的最低值,17.5%。

投资是中国经济的最大驱动。去年投资增长率为19.6%,超过了既定的目标18%,占据了整体经济增长7.7%的一大半。

一些分析家支持经济稳定增长的计划,认为这表明了中国经济增长的巨大引擎虽然一开始摇晃,但可以保持一帆风顺。

区域货币市场在出新闻之后稍微稳定了些,因为有人曾担忧北京会将目标向7%靠拢,投资者总是对中国前景中最微小的变化反应过度。

Annette Beacher, 新加坡道明证券亚太研究部主管说:“虽然有人认为这一“目标”已经过了保质期,金融市场对中国这一巨大的未知数仍十分敏感。”

“在GDP预期增长率“长期”为7.5%的条件下,我们认为这一目标有利于亚洲区域,贸易,广泛一点来说,商品货币。”

但是其他分析师担心政府不愿忍受更低的经济增长预示着中国在改革上可能不会像有些人希望地那样大胆。

"将目标定在7.5%预示着,他们也许不会像我们预期的那样快速解决信贷增长问题。”Julian Evans-Pritchard,一位新加坡资本经济学家如是说。

自然的红色预警

去年十一月份的共产党全体会议宣布了雄心勃勃的改革计划,预示着由投资和出口拉动型经济增长向更缓慢,更稳定的可持续型经济增长的转变。

周三的宣言表示这一计划运行地稳定而谨慎。

李克强,中国首位持经济学博士学位的总理,声明政府将会维持通货膨胀率在3.5%左右,M2货币供应量增长率在12%左右,将财政赤字控制在GDP的2.1%内。这些都在普遍预期中。

他重申了政府在金融改革上的标准论调,表示政府对人民币的管控将会放松,存款最终将得到保障,但未给出明确的时间。

尽管如此,在环境问题上,李克强不再含糊其辞。

李克强的报告持续了100多分钟,国内媒体称其为史上最短。报告说道:“雾霾影响了中国的大部分地区,环境污染成为了重大问题,这是自然针对低效盲目发展给出的红色预警”。

他说对抗污染的战役将会通过能源价格改革敲响,要推动非矿物燃料,减少钢铁和水泥行业的产能,因为这些都是空气污染的主要来源。

今年,淘汰了的钢铁产能只占到了总产能的不到2.5%,而且将会被正在建造的新产能所超越,尽管新产能更现代,更环保。

按计划关闭的水泥厂也只占到了去年总产量的不到2%。许多钢铁厂,水泥厂也因经济原因而倒闭,中国是否愿为治理污染而投入成为了疑问。

分析师过去就提醒过,中国在改革中会不愿打破现状,因为担心改变会刺激失业,危害社会稳定。他们认为诸如缩小政府规模,关闭行业中负债累累的产能过剩的工厂之类的艰难改变,很有可能会退居二线。

在会议期间,主要政府部门和中央银行将会召开一些列新闻发布会,涉及到许多经济与社会议题。

在两会结束后,李克强将会主持定于3月13日举行的记者招待会。

(译者:emily92 编辑:齐磊)

 
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