Swing states

Reader question:

Please explain “swing states” in the United States.

My comments:

Understanding what “swing states” means is, in fact, quintessential to understanding the American election, but let me explain.

First things first. America has 50 states. For the purpose of electing a president, each state is allocated votes called “electoral college” votes.

Forget the “electoral college” part for now because the concept of “electoral college” is a bit complicated, to say the least. Just remember, each state is allocated a certain number of votes and after all the votes are counted following the presidential election, the candidate from a party, be it Republican or Democratic, that collects more votes wins the election.

The Republican Party and the Democratic Party, by the way, are the two major parties in the United States. As a matter of fact, they’re the only parties of consequence where elections are concerned.

Anyways, traditionally, many states have pledged unwavering allegiance to one party, that is, almost always voting for the same party. Here’s a little fact from USAFacts.org (What are the current swing states, and how have they changed over time? August 7, 2024):

Seven states and Washington, DC have consistently voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1988, and 13 states have consistently voted for the Republican presidential candidate.

So, expect these states to continue to lean the same way in this year’s election in November.

Some states, on the other hand, have swayed or have been on a metaphorical swing in terms of party allegiance. In other words, in one election they vote Republican and in another election they vote Democratic.

And these states are called swing states.

Why, because they sway or can be swayed. Literally, they swing like a child sitting on a swing seat, swinging forward and up in the air before falling back and swinging backward up in the air again.

Forward, backward. Forward, backward. So on, so forth (or rather, back and forth).

Hence the name swing states, figuratively speaking.

Swing states, as name suggests, are those states who can swing the direction of an election, this time in favor of Democrats, next time Republican or vice versa.

Swing states are therefore important. They’re pivotal, actually when it comes to winning or losing presidential elections. Even though they are small in number. This year, for instance, only seven states are identified as swing states by USNews.com in this upcoming election. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In other words, these states are where the battleground really is. Win all or more of these states, and your candidate, be it Vice President Kamala Harris (Democrat) or former President Donald Trump (Republican), will win.

Swing states, in short and to sum up our discussion, swing elections.

Let’s read a few media stories about the US election for greater context:

1. On a recent Tuesday morning in Portage, Wis., Sharon Wade tended to her craft and antique furnishing shop. Standing in front of a wall lined with color-coded paints, she helped a friend find the correct tools to spruce up an old dresser.

“You’re going to be fine, Sandy! I promise you,” Wade laughed, as she unwrapped a new paintbrush. “You know you can call me if you need to.”

Her store sits within Columbia County, a county less than an hour outside of Madison. Despite some loyal customers, Wade said business has slowed over the past year.

“It’s been difficult to see people come in, that were regulars before that bought, and now they just come in to look,” she said, addressing rising prices in town. “I don’t blame them, you get in that situation where you have to buy things that you need, not necessarily what you want.”

Protecting her business drives her vote. After supporting former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, she then backed former President Donald Trump twice in 2016 and 2020. Now, she plans to vote for President Biden, arguing Trump’s legal woes are a deal breaker for her.

“I just feel like there’s so much going on with his life that how can he focus on our country,” she said. “We need someone who’s going to be dedicated to what’s happening for us.”

Wade’s voting history mirrors Columbia County – known as a pivot county – one of several in the state that voted twice for Obama and then flipped to Trump in 2016.

In 2020, Trump won Columbia by just under two percentage points. But in neighboring Sauk County, he lost by about the same margin.

Both counties – made up of midsize towns and rural areas outside the capital city – may be potential indicators of which candidate could win the state this year. But less than six months out, many voters remain divided and polarized, leaving little room for outliers to make up their minds.

Jen Gamblethomas sat in a coffee shop in Baraboo, the largest town in Sauk County.

“I think that everybody that I know knows who they’re voting for,” said Gamblethomas, a Democrat who works with a local veterinarian in town.

“People have solidified what their values are and what they’d like to see happen,” she added. “I think everybody’s holding true to where they stand.”

Mark Kolloway sat a few tables away from Gamblethomas. The real estate investor supports Trump and actually moved from Illinois to Wisconsin in part because of the split nature of the state.

“I like the fairness of it,” he said. “At least here, it’s a flip of a coin.”

...

Back in Columbia County, local artist Kathleen Jahn is manning an art market in downtown Portage.

“Nobody’s grabbing my heart,” she said, standing near her section of the store which featured knitted items and framed watercolor paintings.

Despite supporting some of Trump’s policies, Jahn doesn’t trust him anymore. At the same time, she isn’t fully sold on Biden.

“He’s got a lot of good ideas. And he wants to help a lot of the people. But I think sometimes he’s not doing it in the correct way,” she said.

As a swing voter in a swing county in a swing state, she has a rule.

“I personally, when I get together with people, say we’re here to enjoy ourselves. We will not talk about politics or religion,” she explained, letting out a laugh as she added, “Sorry!”

- It’s a tale of two counties in pivotal Wisconsin, NPR.org, May 21, 2024.

2. President Joe Biden’s rather surprising Georgia win in 2020 marked the first time in almost three decades that a Democratic presidential candidate carried the Southern state.

He’ll have the chance for a repeat in the fall against former President Donald Trump, and the Peach State will remain a crucial swing state in the race to the White House – even if the circumstances are different this time.

According to the by-the-book definition, a swing state like Georgia is one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections” and where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties “have similar levels of support.” The group of swing states each presidential cycle is often similar, although variations can occur due to changing demographics, turnout and other factors.

Georgia is a prime example of a shift, having swung into the swing state category in the wake of Biden’s 2020 win and other lower-ticket Democratic victories. In June, U.S. News handicapped the state as a “toss-up” for the 2024 presidential election, but some Democrats are worried about shrinking enthusiasm there ahead of the Biden-Trump rematch.

Here’s everything you need to know about Georgia, which was No. 18 in the most recent Best States rankings by U.S. News, as a 2024 battleground.

Why Georgia Is Important in the Presidential Race

In a sense, Georgia has had both a blue phase and a red phase over the past century-plus. From the late 1800s through 1960, it voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election. But, starting in 1964, its voters chose Republican candidates in all but five contests, with Biden’s win four years ago among the exceptions.

With 16 electoral votes, Georgia is in the top 10 among all states. Like North Carolina, it is a bit less of a bellwether compared to other swing states, but eight of the last 12 Georgia winners ultimately won the presidency.

- The 2024 Swing States: Why Georgia Could Sway the Presidential Election, USNews.com, July 3, 2024.

3. A national CNN flash poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump showed that nearly two-thirds of viewers believed Harris came out on top.

And while national polls can be useful in gauging public opinion across the country, looking at the reaction from the seven crucial battleground states that could swing the election may offer better insight into which candidate is currently in the driver’s seat.

To that end, the Washington Post spoke with 25 uncommitted, swing-state voters to gauge their reaction to Tuesday night’s debate and see how the candidates’ performances may have impacted their voting plans in the upcoming election.

The overwhelming majority, 23 out of 25 voters, said they believed that Harris outperformed Trump, including several voters who went into the debate leaning toward Trump.

“I don’t think Trump was at his best – too rambly. He would have been better had he stayed calm and made more of an intentional effort to answer the questions. Harris made a strong showing. It’s not clear that her words actually stand up to scrutiny, but she sounded confident and seemed to make sharp and effective attacks against Trump,” said one Pennsylvania voter with a preference for Trump.

“Trump was on defense. Harris stuck to her points, was coherent and frankly, more professional than I have ever seen her. Trump missed too many opportunities,” added a Wisconsin voter who was also leaning in Trump’s direction.

Entering the debate, 12 voters were leaning towards Harris, 10 were leaning towards Trump and the remaining three were completely undecided.

After the debate, five voters said they were now definitely voting for Harris, 10 were leaning towards Harris, six were leaning towards Trump, three remained undecided, and one did not provide their candidate preference post-debate.

Notably, two voters who were leaning toward Trump before the debate changed their minds, and were favoring Harris afterwards, while one said they now planned to vote for a third-party candidate.

- Trump vs. Harris: Who is leading in swing states after heated presidential debate? SILive.com, September 12, 2024.

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About the author:

Zhang Xin is Trainer at chinadaily.com.cn. He has been with China Daily since 1988, when he graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University. Write him at: zhangxin@chinadaily.com.cn, or raise a question for potential use in a future column.

（作者：张欣）