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海外专家:破解环环相扣的改革难题将产生深远全球影响
Reform roadmap

[ 2013-11-09 09:57] 来源:中国日报网     字号 [] [] []  
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海外专家:破解环环相扣的改革难题将产生深远全球影响
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Ahead of the Communist Party's much awaited plenum that begins on Nov 9, expectations are high that the meeting will provide the future reform agenda for China and clear the decks for sustainable, balanced development. As the 200 members and 170 alternate members of the Party's Central Committee get ready to meet in Beijing to discuss among other things China's economic blueprint, experts agree that reforms will undoubtedly be the main point of discussions.

Historically, third plenums have been the springboard for key reforms in China, particularly on economic matters. While some experts feel the meeting may call for more bold, drastic reforms, others feel it will be a case of gradual, incremental changes.

Yu Zhengsheng, China's top political adviser, in a recent interview with Xinhua News Agency, indicated that the meeting will "principally explore the issue of deep and comprehensive reforms".

The reforms this time "will be broad and will be unprecedented", he said, adding: "They will strongly push forward profound transformation in the economy, society and other spheres."

The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee said in a statement on Oct 29 that the realization of the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation, a concept that has been promoted by the new Party leadership, requires deepening reforms comprehensively.

The Party will speed up development of the socialist market economy, democracy, cultural development, social harmony and environmental protection, it said.

Reforms aside, the meeting is also expected to concentrate on the fact that despite the uncertain external environment, China needs to assume more global responsibilities and champion world economic revival with swift and timely measures. Experts feel international attention on the meeting is sharper this time, because the development agenda will have a profound impact on the rest of the world.

New model

"One of the key reform objectives for China is to move toward a new model of sustainable and equitable development, one in which there is more balance between ecological sustainability and growth and provides better sustenance opportunities for all," says Gregory Chin, associate professor of political science at York University in Toronto.

It is logical to expect that more measures in this regard will be announced at the political gathering because the Party has already pursued "ecological civilization" as one of the five pillars of its vision, although much still needs to be done on environmental aspects, he says.

In this regard, Chin says, policymakers need to take more steps to ensure ecological sustainability, pay more attention to the biosphere (and human life within it), rethink how much economic growth is needed and how it can be achieved in more efficient and sustainable ways.

At the same time, growing disparities in wealth and opportunities need to be reduced, while measures are needed to ensure clean, ethical and fair governance.

Glyn Ford, a former member of the European Parliament, says China should opt for an incremental, rather than radical, reform agenda.

He says continuation of balanced development in urban and rural areas and coastal and inland regions is needed while the country tackles other pressing issues such as corruption, rule of law and the need to stabilize population movements. "I think the imbalance between the rural and urban, coastal and inland regions and rule of law are the biggest challenges that China faces," Ford says.

Fresh challenges

Chin of York University says the two main domestic challenges for China are ensuring further advances in clean, ethical and fair governance and in environmental management and sustainable development, with social tensions appearing to have been on the rise in these two areas.

Measures are needed to strengthen and improve corruption prevention to achieve the first goal, he says. For sustainable development, a fundamental shift in the mindset and priorities of all stakeholders and within society are necessary.

Chin says breakthroughs must be made in the way problems are viewed and tackled, such as rethinking GDP in terms of "green GDP" and changes in the performance assessment and promotion/demotion criteria for leaders at all levels.

Alex Kirby, a retired BBC journalist who has tracked China's development for several years, lists ending corruption as the greatest challenge. He feels that it is important to tackle corruption with a "one stone kills several birds" approach.

"Once corruption stops, China will be able to maintain the growth it needs to end poverty and to protect the environment (its own and the world's)," Kirby says.

Martin Schoenhals, a professor at Columbia University in New York, expects the meeting to provide breakthroughs in achieving social equality in China. "What is worrisome is the growing inequality," he says.

Schoenhals says farmers are the key to the growth puzzle. "They account for more than 70 percent of the population, even though some of them no longer hold any land. Historically also, China had a revolution that sought to provide land to farmers. If farmers lose land, or access to land, it will result in mass migration to cities and urban poverty.

"What worries me is whether these hundreds of millions of farmers can move to the cities and all find and keep jobs."

China's new leadership has already provided enough indications that it plans to chart a roadmap for urbanization. While this has long been in the works, experts feel that the plenum will provide the much-needed impetus by including it in the reform agenda.

However, Schoenhals feels the reform agenda should have steps to limit urbanization and outline steps to help farmers remain in the countryside if they so wish.

Pragmatic approach

For some observers, the plenum is important as the new leadership comprising economists, lawyers and humanists provides a more pragmatic approach toward reforms.

Michal Krol, research associate at the European Center for the International Political Economy in Brussels, says the present leaders are mostly individuals who have spent most of their working life with government organizations. "They have an appetite for reforms, not least to meet the ongoing social, economic and environmental challenges," he says.

Krol adds that while there is no doubt China has set stiff targets, its eventual success depends on how much leeway policymakers allow - and how they plan to streamline market liberalization.

"State-owned and State-controlled enterprises dominate the sectors with the highest potential for service productivity and employment growth. Liberalization of transport, finance, telecommunication, healthcare and business sectors by allowing more firms is the most effective way to foster reforms," Krol says.

Echoing Krol's views is David Fouquet, director of the Europe-Asia Research Network in Brussels. "This implies a reconciling of the roles of large State-owned enterprises and what might be termed the true fundamental economy, as well as the provision of social and life services to the majority of the population."

Many observers feel China's reform should be gradual as it has been in the past decades. Duncan Freeman, senior researcher at the Brussels International Institute of Contemporary China Studies, says President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have been part of China's leadership for years and says they subscribe to the basic policy consensus that has long existed.

"In this sense, any new policy initiatives will be based on the same principles of gradualism that have been the basis of reform for the last 30 years," Freeman says. "However, they have spoken of the need for greater political courage in tackling reform, so I would hope to see a package of reforms that take significant steps toward addressing fundamental issues faced by China today."

The basic reform goal for China should be to continue to push ahead with the welfare of the Chinese people, which would involve not just GDP and income growth but also issues such as healthcare, education, welfare, the environment and social and political development, Freeman says.

The domestic challenges are many. They are a complex of interrelated problems that cannot be solved individually. The risks in areas such as the financial sector, investment, the environment and others are many and threaten the sustainability of what has been achieved so far.

Freeman says: "A key area is investment, and how it is allocated, because this has an impact not only directly on issues like overcapacity, but also to other areas such as risk in the financial system, the environment and energy and the economic welfare of the ordinary Chinese people because they are losers in a system where overinvestment is prevalent."

Another key area is institutional reform and capacity building, because this is central to reform.

Maria Jesus Herrerias, senior research fellow of contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom, says China needs to promote further economic reforms to avoid the middle-income trap, which can be addressed at domestic and international levels.

At home, China needs to improve the efficiency of banks. Small and medium-sized enterprises need to get access to credit to finance their investment projects and convertibility of the yuan to facilitate international transactions. Meanwhile, China also needs to generate more incentives to boost domestic consumption, at the expense of traditional savings, to offset the predominance of foreign demand as a source of economic growth.

"The continuous dependence on external demand exposes China to international shocks such as the current economic crisis," Herrerias says.

Opening up

China's reforms at home and opening-up outward have mostly gone in tandem, with external opening-up providing the much-needed impetus for domestic reform. China's entry to the World Trade Organization a decade ago paved the way for more reforms and the country's economic achievements, experts say.

Recent reform efforts have come amid major shifts in the global economic balance and international power. Chin of York University says most of the changes the world is dealing with today, including global governance, were not foreseen 20 years ago, let alone 35 years ago, when China first set out on the road of reform and opening-up.

"The world today is less safe than 35 years ago, in that we are dealing with a number of fissures that threaten global security, including the rise of religious extremism and ethnic or even civilization conflicts, rather than focusing on one major line of geopolitical tension," Chin says.

Ford, a former European Parliament member, says China is now a global economic power even if some factors still have to come to terms with this new world order. "Yet in a sense it is more isolated - and perceives itself threatened - than two generations ago."

At the same time, Chin says the world is now seeing the re-emergence of many regions and economies of the South - and the rise of a group of major emerging or re-emerging economies. "China is now at the heart of many of these global shifts," Chin says. "It will be essential for China to play a constructive role and a more robust role, in helping to ensure that the world evolves toward a more sustainable, fair, stable and safe global environment."

Chin hopes China will continue to pursue necessary reforms to the international monetary, financial, and trade systems and promote reforms of the Bretton Woods system (that is the IMF, World Bank and WTO reforms).

"The 2008 global financial crisis showed that such reforms are much needed. The ongoing challenges of European sovereign debt and of the European banks and the fragile recovery of the US economy suggest that more changes are needed," Chin says.

China should help strengthen the role and capabilities of the UN system, especially by giving greater support to the UN in championing global development and ecological sustainability, he says.

Ford says that China should open up more economically, especially in sectors such as telecoms, banking and finance, make the yuan one of the three global reserve currencies, exert its rightful weight in the international forums and build bilateral trading relations with key global players.

Chin says China should host the G20 summit in 2016 and encourage G20 leaders to focus on strengthening financial stability arrangements and provide global leadership on ensuring delivery of the Bretton Woods reforms.

The new leadership has taken measures in the bilateral and multilateral spheres. It has decided to develop a new type of foreign relations, especially with the US. It has advocated launching a new Silk Road in central Asia and a coastal Silk Road with southern neighbors. It has started to engage in bilateral trade and investment pacts while pursuing multilateral efforts.

Former BBC journalist Kirby says China has a huge contribution to make to global systems. On climate change, it is already providing an example by doing what is in its own interest (decarbonizing its economy). "This makes it harder for other countries to resist adopting similar policies - and that benefits the whole planet," Kirby says.

He goes one step further and adds that since China is such a large and important country, doing what is in its own interests is certain to be of interest to others also. China should also open up to some of the global economic and trade regulatory systems, he says.

However, Schoenhals feels that China should not follow the path trod by other powers such as the US because it would lead to aging infrastructure and lack of sufficient social services for people, because most of the money ends up being used for military purposes. "I know China is proud of being a peaceful nation ... I hope China will not follow America's lead and will instead find a way to disarm, rather than arm."

查看译文

在中共十八届三中全会即将召开前夕,中国日报海外各版和商业周刊刊登了我驻欧盟分社首席记者付敬撰写的封面故事,深入剖析海外对三中全会的期待,以下是该文的中文译文:

在三中全会召开前夕,海外专家和学者猜测此次闭门会议将制定中国未来的改革议程,为公平、可持续平衡发展扫清道路。

近200名中央委员和170名候补中央委员已经做好准备参加11月9日到12日在北京举行的会议,讨论包括中国未来经济蓝图在内的丰富话题和议程。专家们认为改革路径无疑是该闭门讨论的核心内容。

历史上,三中全会一直是讨论中国关键改革方案的场合,尤其侧重经济问题。虽然一些专家认为这次会议可能推行雄心勃勃、大刀阔斧的改革,但也有人认为改革将以循序渐进的方式进行。

近日,全国政协主席俞正声说这次会议将主要探讨“深入和全面改革的问题”。这会是一次广泛、力度强、前所未有的改革,他补充道:“这将强有力地推进经济、社会和其他领域的深刻变革。”

中共中央政治局在10月29号的公报中指出,实现以新一届党中央领导提倡的民族复兴为支撑的“中国梦”,需要全方位深化改革。公报指出,中共将加快发展社会主义市场经济,并推进民主政治、文化发展、社会和谐和环境保护。

除改革外,预计会议将指出中国在外部环境不明朗的情况下,需要承担更多全球责任,以迅速及时的措施引领世界经济复苏。专家认为这次会议将吸引更多国际关注,因为会议的发展议程将对世界其他地区产生深远影响,改变世界格局的游戏规则。

发展新模式

“中国改革的重点目标之一是走可持续和公平发展的新模式,在生态可持续性和经济增长之间保持更多平衡,为所有人的生存和发展提供更多机会。”加拿大约克大学的政治学副教授格雷戈里·秦说。

尽管中国在环境和生态保护方面急待改善,但中共已把“生态文明”作为其五大执政基础之一,因此有理由期待在这次高规格政治集会上宣布更多这方面的措施,他说。

秦说,在这方面决策者需要起草更多措施以确保生态的可持续发展,更加重视生态圈(以及生态圈中的人类生活),重新考虑所需经济增长的速率、以及如何用更有效和更持续的方式实现。同时需要减少富有和贫困人口之间不断扩大的财富和机会差距,做出更多改进以确保透明、道德和公平的治理。

欧洲议会前议员格林·福特说,中国需要一个循序渐进而不是激进的改革议程。他认为,中国城市和农村、沿海和内陆地区间的平衡发展需要延续性。然而中国需要同时解决其他紧迫问题,像腐败、法制、民工。

“我认为城市和农村、沿海和内陆间的不平衡,以及法制问题是中国面临的最大挑战。”福特说。

BBC退休记者亚历克斯·科比多年关注中国的发展,他认为改革开放是具有挑战性的、环环相扣的一系列难题的组合,但几乎在任何情况下答案都是一样的, 那就是民意的支持和共识是改革成功的关键。“政治家和官员需要让普通民众感受到他们对大众的信任,他们只有在大众同意的基础上才能治理。”

“数年以来,中国就不存在‘同意’这一说。但现在许多中国人已经意识到他们手中握有的力量。明智的决策者必须认识到这一点,并制定政策以获取信任。”科比说。

改革面临新挑战

约克大学的秦教授说,确保在透明、道德和公平治理以及环境管理和可持续发展方面取得更多进展是中国国内的两个主要挑战,这两个领域的社会紧张局势一直在上升。他说为了达成第一个目标,需要进一步预防腐败和反腐败。至于可持续发展,所有利益攸关方和社会内部需要根本性地转变心态,优先重视可持续发展。

秦认为,必须在指导原则框架中做出突破,例如反思GDP的概念,引入“绿色GDP”,改变各职级领导及相关工作人员的绩效考核和晋升/降级标准。

科比也把杜绝腐败作为最大的挑战并列出了不打击腐败的风险。他甚至认为“一石数鸟”的方法对于解决腐败十分重要。“一旦解决了腐败问题,中国将能保持所需的经济增长以消除贫困和保护(中国自身以及世界的)环境。”

纽约哥伦比亚大学的马丁·舍恩哈尔斯认为这次全会将为中国实现社会公平提供突破点。“就我长时间研究中国的经验来看,令人担忧的是日益加剧的不平等。”

舍恩哈尔斯认为,农民是整个增长之谜的关键。“他们(农民)占整个人口的70%以上,即使一些人不再持有土地。历史上,中国也有为了把土地分给农民爆发的革命。如果农民失去了土地或者获得土地的权利,这将导致人口大规模迁移到城市、并诱发城市贫困。”“令我担心的是,这些数以百万计的农民能否迁移到城市,全部找到并保住工作。”

更多的迹象表明,中国新一届领导层已经在制定城市化进程的路线图。虽然一直在筹划,专家认为这次全会将通过把它写进改革议程以直面挑战并提供经济发展急需的推动力。

不过,舍恩哈尔斯同时认为,这次改革议程应该包括限制过度城市化的措施,帮助农民像城市居民一样在农村幸福生活。

现实、可操作改革

一些观察家认为此次全会十分重要,必将推进实质改革,这是因为新一届领导集体包括了经济学家、律师和人人学者,将为改革提供现实、可操作路径。

米哈尔·克洛尔是总部设在布鲁塞尔的欧洲国际政治经济中心的副研究员,他认为现任中共领导人的从政生涯大都有很长时间的基层和在政府机构的经历。“他们爱好改革,不仅仅是为了应对目前的社会、经济和环境挑战。”

在克洛尔看来,中国毫无疑问已经设定了目标,最终的成功取决于决策者允许多少回旋余地,以及如何实现市场自由化取向的改革。“在国有及国有控股企业占主导地位的产业中,生产率和就业增长最有潜力。促进改革最有效的方式是通过引进更多外资和私营资本实现交通、金融、电信、医疗和商业部门的市场化。”

布鲁塞尔的欧洲亚洲研究所主任大卫·富凯赞同克洛尔的看法。富凯说这次全会将讨论中国未来的改革议程。“这意味着大型国有企业和其他经济成分之间的关系,以及如何为大多数人提供公共服务都将被讨论到。”富凯说。

许多观察家认为,中国的改革应该和它过去几十年的改革一样循序渐进。布鲁塞尔当代中国研究所的高级研究员邓肯·弗里曼说,中国国家主席习近平和总理李克强多年来已经是中国领导层的一部分,他们达成的基本政策共识已经存在了很长一段时间。

“从这个意义上说,任何新的政策措施都将基于同样渐进的原则,这也是过去35年改革的基础和共识。”弗里曼说,“然而,他们已经提到了处理改革需要更大政治勇气,因此我希望看到一系列改革措施,采取重大步骤来解决今天中国面临的最根本问题。”

弗里曼认为,中国的基本改革目标应该是持续提高中国人民的福祉。这将不仅仅涉及GDP和收入增长,还将包括健康、教育、福利、环境、社会和政治发展等问题。中国的国内挑战是多方面的,复杂又相互关联,不能单独解决。金融、投资、环境以及其他领域存在的风险是主要问题,也是对目前所取得成就能否持续下去的威胁。

“投资及其如何分配这是一个关键领域。因为这不仅直接影响产能过剩等问题,也影响金融系统的风险,环境和能源,以及中国普通民众的经济福利,因为在这样一个普遍过度投资的系统中所有人都是失败者。”

弗里曼补充说,另一个关键领域是机构改革和能力建设,因为这是改革进程的中心。

英国诺丁汉大学当代中国研究中心的高级研究员玛利亚·耶稣·艾雷里亚斯说,中国需要进一步促进经济改革,以避免陷入中等收入陷阱。国内而言,中国需要提高银行以及那些需要获得信贷资助投资项目的中小型企业的效率,改善人民币的汇率形成机制以促进国际交易。同时,中国需要制定更多激励措施,改变传统储蓄观念以刺激国内消费,以此来弥补外需作为经济增长源泉优势减弱的的不利。

“外部震荡已经将中国对于外需的持续需求的不平衡经济格局暴露无遗。”艾雷里亚斯说。

开放倒逼改革

中国的对内改革和对外开放同步进行,外部的开放给国内改革提供了急需的动力。专家说,十年前中国加入世界贸易组织,为取得更多改革和国家的经济成就铺平了道路。

在全球经济再平衡和国际格局转变的背景中,中国最近为改革做出了努力。约克大学的秦教授说,当今世界需要应对的包括全球治理在内的大多数挑战,在20年前都不可测,更别说35年前或是中国首次踏上改革开放道路之时了。

“现在的世界没有35年前安全。我们不仅仅专注于一个地区的紧张局势,我们要处理众多威胁全球安全的问题,像宗教极端主义的抬头,民族冲突甚至‘文明’冲突。”秦说。

前欧洲议会成员福特说,中国现在是全球经济大国,即使某些部分还没有适应新的世界秩序。“然而在某种意义上说,现在的中国相比前两代更加孤立,感觉身处威胁之中。”

秦认为,与此同时,世界正在见证发展中国家和许多地区和经济体的复苏,以及新经济体的再现。“中国现在是许多全球性转变的中心,中国必须发挥更强大的建设性作用,以确保全球局势沿着更加公平、可持续、稳定和安全的方向发展。”

秦希望中国能在国际货币、金融和贸易体系以及整个布雷顿森林体系(国际货币基金组织、世界银行、世界贸易组织)方面继续推进必要的改革。“2008年全球金融危机表明我们迫切需要这种改革。欧洲主权债务危机和欧洲银行现在面临的挑战,以及美国脆弱的经济复苏表明我们需要更多改变。”

秦还说,中国应该帮助加强联合国系统的作用和能力,尤其对联合国倡导全球发展和生态可持续性方面给予更大支持。

福特认为,中国在经济方面尤其是在电信、银行和金融部门应该不断开放,把人民币作为全球三大储备货币之一,在国际场合上发挥其应有的作用,与全球主要政治力量建立投资和贸易协定关系。

秦说,中国应该在2016年举办G20峰会,并鼓励20国集团领导人把重心放在加强金融稳定性上,提供全球领导力确保布雷顿森林体系的改革。

新的领导层已经在双边和多边层面采取积极措施,决定发展同各国尤其是美国的新型大国外交关系。并主张在中亚推出新型丝绸之路,与南方邻国共建海上丝绸之路。在致力于多边努力的同时已经开始着手双边贸易和投资协定。

前BBC记者科比说,所有大国都误以为只有自己对世界的看法是唯一可行的。“中国和其他大国一样,如果能接受其他意见,即使政治上有不同见解也能和谐共处,那它将从中获益良多。”

科比说,中国对于全球治理体系做出了巨大贡献。在气候变化方面,中国已经向世界提供了一个符合自身利益的例子(经济发展的低碳路径)。“这让其他国家很难反对类似的政策,这有利于整个地球。”

科比进一步补充说,中国是一个重要的大国,做哪种符合自身利益的事也是其他国家感兴趣的。中国应该做出更多的努力,为全球经济和贸易监管治理体系做贡献。

舍恩哈尔斯认为,中国不应该照搬其他国家比如美国的老路,因为大部分钱被用于军事,导致了基础设施老化和社会服务缺乏。“我知道中国为自己是一个爱好和平的国家感到自豪......我希望中国不会步美国的后尘,不走军事扩张之路。”舍恩哈尔斯说。

弗里曼认为,20世纪70年代后期以来,全球形势和中国的地位已经改变,中国和世界其他地区间的相互依存越来越多。“中国逐渐融入全球决策中,但相互依存的日益加深意味着外部世界对中国的期望和要求也在增加。”弗里曼说,“中国再也不能孤立采取行动,这些变化这大大增加了改革路径和蓝图的复杂性,即使重心仍在国内发展上。”

富凯说,国际治理体系就像一个非常有趣、具有挑战性的星群。“虽然我不是一个危言耸听者,但我相信亚洲迫切需要发展更好的合作关系,而不是目前状态,中国有责任改变这种情况。”

科比也认为中国应该做出更多努力与邻国和平共处。“一个实现边境和平的中国可以进一步改变那些远不完美的国际和区域治理机制,让各国互相尊重和平相处。”科比说。

(中国日报欧盟分社首席记者付敬撰写,驻伦敦首席记者张春燕对此文有贡献;驻欧盟分社实习生李晓菲翻译)

 
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