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据印度政府最新发布的统计数据显示，到2026年，印度总人口将达到14.71亿，从而取代中国成为世界上人口最多的国家。到2050年，印度的人口将超过16亿，这将严重威胁国家的经济发展。该统计报告的作者表示，印度需要重新考虑阻止人口增长的政策，以防止人口增长使贫困问题加剧。该作者同时指出，印度5亿的贫困人口得不到稳定的经济来源，导致印度有四分之一的女孩在18岁前便怀孕生子，这也是人口增长加快的原因之一。对此，印度国内评论人士则表示，人口增长将会为印度的经济发展带来客观的人口红利，从而促进经济更快发展。他们表示，目前印度每年都能培养出16万工程师和100多万名技工，随着人口的增长，这些专业技术人员的数量也会随之上升，而人们受教育机会不断增加必然会减慢人口增长的速度。
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A densely packed crowd in front of Jama Masjid in New Delhi. |
India will overtake China to become the world's most populous nation within the next 16 years, according to new government figures.
Officials say the rise in population to more than 1.6 billion by 2050 will threaten the country's rapid economic development.
According to the author, Dr Amarjeet Singh of the National Population Stabilisation Fund, India will need to reconsider its position to stop population growth fuelling poverty.
India's current population of 1.1 billion will swell by 371 million in 2026, the report said, taking it beyond China's current 1.35 billion.
The scale of India's population explosion is highlighted by the fact that its most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, has more than 180 million people.
The report's publication provoked a clash between India's population experts and leading commentators over whether the rise will help or hinder the country's remarkable growth story. India's economy is currently growing at more than nine percent – second only to China.
Author Dr Amarjeet Singh warned that becoming the world's most populous country will trap several hundred million Indians in poverty.
"If we continue to grow at the current pace we will double our population in fifty years making sustainable development unattainable," he said.
His report blamed economic insecurity among the country's 500 million poor, which led to high rates of teenage pregnancies. It revealed that a quarter of India's teenage girls were either pregnant or mothers by age eighteen.
Those girls who left school early were more likely to become teenage mothers, while those who remained at school showed lower fertility levels, the report claimed.
Dr Singh's report for the Ministry of Heath and Family Welfare was denounced by rival experts and commentators who said a growing nation could pay a "demographic dividend" of even higher economic growth.
"This is absolute bunkum," said AR Nanda, executive director of the Population Foundation of India and former commissioner of India's census.
"Over the next 25 years India will reap a demographic dividend of high economic growth providing we invest in human resources and health. We could see an economic surge," he added.
Pavan K Varma, one of India's most influential social commentators, said India already produces 160,000 newly qualified engineers and more than one million technicians every year, which will increase as its population and investment in education rise.
He said increasing education opportunities and the rise in access to television was already slowing the population growth rate.
"More than 500 million people in rural India are watching cable television and as more and more try to replicate the lifestyles they see portrayed so fleshily, they see how each child reduces the possibility of being part of this upwardly mobile curve," he said.
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(Agencies)
（中国日报网英语点津 Helen 编辑）
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