到2045年，全球1/4的人将患肥胖症，1/8的人将患2型糖尿病

科学家在维也纳欧洲肥胖大会上公布的最新报告指出，全球范围内肥胖症患者的比例正在急速上升，预计2045年将增加到22%。这意味着，全球约1/4的人将成为肥胖症患者。如果按照目前的趋势，那么到2045年全球将有1/8的人患2型糖尿病。

One in eight people in the world will have type 2 diabetes by 2045 if obesity continues to climb at the present rate, according to a new study.

根据一项新研究，如果肥胖症按照目前的速度发展下去，那么到2045年全球将有1/8的人患2型糖尿病。

【科普】

2型糖尿病原名叫成人发病型糖尿病，多在35～40岁之后发病，占糖尿病患者90%以上。导致2型糖尿病的主要诱因包括肥胖、体力活动过少和应激。由于上述诱因，患者的胰岛素分泌能力及身体对胰岛素的敏感性逐渐降低，血糖升高，导致糖尿病。

Last year, 14% of the global population was obese and 9% had type 2 diabetes. By 2045, 22% will be obese and 14% will be suffering from type 2 diabetes, estimates presented at the European Congress on Obesity in Vienna suggest.

2017年，全球肥胖症发病率为14%，2 型糖尿病发病率为9%。维也纳欧洲肥胖大会上公布的预测认为，到2045年，全球将有22%的人患肥胖症，14%的人患2型糖尿病。

The implications of the expanding numbers are severe for health systems in every country. Diabetes UK estimates that the NHS spends £14 billion a year on the disease already, which is about 10% of its budget. People with diabetes need monitoring, treatment and care for the serious potential complications which can include amputations and blindness.

这一不断攀升的数字让各国卫生系统面临严峻考验。据英国糖尿病协会估计，英国国民医疗服务体系每年在糖尿病方面的开支为140亿英镑（约合人民币1195亿元），占其预算的10%。糖尿病可引发截肢、失明等严重的并发症，因此患者需要接受监测、治疗和护理。

The study was carried out by scientists funded by the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, which makes diabetes treatments, together with the Steno Diabetes Centre in Gentofte, Denmark, and University College London. They say that to prevent type 2 diabetes rates rising above 10%, obesity levels must come down by a quarter.

这项研究由制药公司诺和诺德资助，该公司与位于丹麦根措夫特的Steno糖尿病中心和伦敦大学学院合作，提供糖尿病的治疗方案。他们认为，为了防止2型糖尿病的发病率上升到10%以上，肥胖症患者必须减少1/4。

“The global prevalence of obesity and diabetes is projected to increase dramatically unless prevention of obesity is significantly intensified. Developing effective global programs to reduce obesity offer the best opportunity to slow or stabilize the unsustainable prevalence of diabetes. The first step must be the recognition of the challenge that obesity presents and the mobilization of social service and disease prevention resources to slow the progression of these two conditions,” said Dr Alan Moses of Novo Nordisk Research and Development in Søborg, Denmark.

丹麦索伯格诺和诺德研发中心的阿伦•摩斯博士称：“若不大力加强对肥胖症的预防，预计肥胖症和糖尿病的全球发病率将大幅增加。制定有效的全球“减肥”计划，是减缓或稳定糖尿病不可持续流行的最佳机会。首先，必须认识到肥胖症带来的挑战，调动社会服务和疾病预防资源，以减缓肥胖症和糖尿病的发展。”

The researchers have calculated the likely rise in obesity for individual countries. If current trends in the US continue, obesity will increase from 39% in 2017 to 55% in 2045, and diabetes rates from 14% to 18%. To keep diabetes rates in the US stable between 2017 and 2045, obesity must fall from 38% today to 28%.

研究人员计算了各国肥胖症的上升趋势。如果目前的趋势继续下去，到2045年，美国的肥胖症患病率将从2017年的39%上升到55%，糖尿病的患病率将从14%上升到18%。为了使美国的糖尿病发病率在2017-2045年间保持不变，肥胖症患病率必须从目前的38%下降到28%。

In the UK, they say, current trends predict that obesity will rise from 32% today to 48% in 2045, while diabetes levels will rise from 10.2% to 12.6%. To stabilize UK diabetes rates at 10%, obesity prevalence must fall from 32% to 24%.

研究人员称，按照目前趋势，到2045年，英国的肥胖症发病率将从当下的32%增加到48%，而糖尿病发病率将从10.2%增加到12.6%。为了使英国的糖尿病发病率稳定在10%，肥胖症患病率必须从32%下降到24%.

“Each country is different based on unique genetic, social and environmental conditions which is why there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach that will work. Individual countries must work on the best strategy for them,” said Moses.

“每个国家基于其独特的基因、社会和环境因素，面临的情况有所不同，因此没有‘万能’的方法。各国都必须找到最适合自己的对策。”

The tide could be turned, he said, “but it will take aggressive and coordinated action to reduce obesity and individual cities should play a key role in confronting the issues around obesity.”

摩斯博士称，这种趋势可以逆转，“但要降低肥胖症发病率，需要积极协调的行动，而每座城市都应该在对抗肥胖问题上发挥重要作用。”

英文来源：卫报

编译：董静

审校：yaning