每年感恩节的第二天通常是美国度假购物季开始的日子，在经济危机重压下刚刚缓过些气的消费者可能会在商家大幅折扣的吸引下蜂拥而至，不过他们会否放开消费却尚待考证。商家和购物网站早早就公布了今年购物季的促销计划，希望在几十年来最惨淡购物季之后，对平板电视、玩具及其他商品的需求能够有所刺激。美国零售业联合会预计今年购物季的销售额可能会下降1％，而国际购物中心协会则预测今年的销售额会上升1-2％。有专业人士表示，虽然目前经济仍然疲软，失业率也还在上升，但是零售市场在过去几个月中正在趋于稳定，人们有理由相信在即将到来的购物季，这样的稳定性也会有所表现。

When the U.S. holiday shopping season kicks off on the day after Thanksgiving, retailers can expect to see millions of less frightened, but even more bargain-hungry customers cross their thresholds.

When the U.S. holiday shopping season kicks off on the day after Thanksgiving, retailers can expect to see millions of less frightened, but even more bargain-hungry customers cross their thresholds.

Industry experts expect a strong turnout on Black Friday, which falls on November 27 this year, as deep discounts lure shoppers after more than a year of subdued spending. But they caution it will not mean a bumper holiday season in the weeks leading up to Christmas since consumers still remain cautious.

"Given what we know about consumer shopping patterns, even this month, I would suspect it will turn out to be a very strong performance," said Michael Niemira, chief economist of the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Special promotion days have been big drivers of sales, he said, pointing to the lift retailers saw on the November 11 Veteran's Day holiday.

Retailers and websites dedicated to Black Friday deals have leaked sales plans earlier than usual, in the hopes of sparking demand for flat-panel televisions, toys and other goods after 2008's worst holiday season in decades.

While the economy remains weak and unemployment has risen, U.S. shoppers have had more than a year to adjust their spending and digest the bad news. In 2008, holiday shopping started just weeks after the global financial crisis erupted.

"Certainly last year was a year of tremendous uncertainty going into Black Friday because we were right in the middle of the storm," said Chris Donnelly, a partner in Accenture's retail practice. "There is much less panic, I would say, or much less uncertainty, as we go into the season."

Even so, more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday last year, up from 147 million in 2007, according to the National Retail Federation. The average amount of money spent by shoppers over that weekend rose 7.2 percent to $372.57 per person.

Those numbers, however, did not prevent a sales slide of 3.4 percent for the entire shopping season last year, marking the first decline since the NRF began tracking such data.

While the NRF has not issued a Black Friday forecast, it expects 2009 holiday season sales to decline 1 percent. The ICSC forecast a 1 percent to 2 percent rise.

"Retail sales have been, while not stellar, somewhat stabilizing over the past few months and there is every reason to believe that as we go into the holiday season that we are going to see some stability as well," Donnelly said.

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(Agencies)

（英语点津 Helen 编辑）