二、2014年工作总体部署
II. General Work Arrangements for 2014
2014年,我国面临的形势依然错综复杂,有利条件和不利因素并存。世界经济复苏存在不稳定、不确定因素,一些国家宏观政策调整带来变数,新兴经济体又面临新的困难和挑战。全球经济格局深度调整,国际竞争更趋激烈。我国支撑发展的要素条件也在发生深刻变化,深层次矛盾凸显,正处于结构调整阵痛期、增长速度换挡期,到了爬坡过坎的紧要关口,经济下行压力依然较大。同时要看到,我国发展仍处在可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期,工业化、城镇化持续推进,区域发展回旋余地大,今后一个时期保持经济中高速增长有基础也有条件。我们必须防微虑远,趋利避害,一定要牢牢把握发展的主动权。
In 2014, we are still in a complex environment with both favorable and unfavorable factors. The world economic recovery still faces instability and uncertainties. Macro-policy adjustments made by some countries introduce new variables into the equation, and emerging economies are facing new difficulties and challenges. The global economy is undergoing profound adjustment and international competition is getting fiercer.We are at a critical juncture where our path upward is particularly steep: The basic conditions underpinning development are undergoing profound changes; deep-seated problems are surfacing; painful structural adjustments need to be made; the pace of economic growth is changing; and downward pressure on the economy remains great.At the same time, it should be noted that China has the foundation and conditions for maintaining a medium-high rate of economic growth for some time to come: We are still in an important period of strategic opportunity during which great progress can be made in China's development; industrialization and urbanization are being advanced; and there is considerable potential for regional development. We must address problems as they emerge, guard against latent problems, and keep the development initiative firmly in our hands.
今年政府工作的总体要求是:高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜,以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观为指导,全面贯彻落实党的十八大和十八届二中、三中全会精神,贯彻落实习近平同志系列重要讲话精神,坚持稳中求进工作总基调,把改革创新贯穿于经济社会发展各个领域各个环节,保持宏观经济政策连续性稳定性,增强调控的前瞻性针对性,全面深化改革,不断扩大开放,实施创新驱动,坚持走中国特色新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化道路,加快转方式调结构促升级,加强基本公共服务体系建设,着力保障和改善民生,切实提高发展质量和效益,大力推进社会主义经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态文明建设,实现经济持续健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
The overall requirements for the government's work this year are as follows:
Hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics; take Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of Three Represents and the Scientific Outlook on Development as our guide; comprehensively implement the guidelines of the Eighteenth National Party Congress and the second and third plenary sessions of the Eighteenth CPC Central Committee; implement the guiding principles of Comrade Xi Jinping's important speeches; adhere to the general work guideline of making progress while maintaining stability; carry out reform and innovation in all areas of economic and social development; maintain continuity and stability of our macroeconomic policies; make macro-control more forward-oriented and targeted; comprehensively deepen reform; constantly expand opening up; drive development through innovation; keep to the new path of industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization with distinctive Chinese features; accelerate transformation of the growth model, structural adjustments, and industrial upgrading; strengthen the development of the basic public service system; ensure and improve people's wellbeing; raise the quality and returns of development; promote socialist economic, political, cultural, social, and ecological advancement; and achieve sound and sustained economic development and social harmony and stability.
今年经济社会发展的主要预期目标是:国内生产总值增长7.5%左右,居民消费价格涨幅控制在3.5%左右,城镇新增就业1000万人以上,城镇登记失业率控制在4.6%以内,国际收支基本平衡,努力实现居民收入和经济发展同步。加强对增长、就业、物价、国际收支等主要目标的统筹平衡。这里,着重对两个目标加以说明。
The following are the main targets we have set for China's economic and social development this year: Increase GDP by about 7.5%, keep the rise in the CPI at around 3.5%, create ten million more urban jobs, ensure that the registered urban unemployment rate does not rise above 4.6%, achieve basic balance in international payments, and increase personal incomes in step with economic development. We need to make overall planning for and balance major targets, namely, economic growth, employment, prices and international payments.
Here, I will speak more on two of the targets.
关于经济增长。我国仍是一个发展中国家,还处于社会主义初级阶段,发展是解决我国所有问题的关键,必须牢牢扭住经济建设这个中心,保持合理的经济增长速度。经过认真比较、反复权衡,把增长预期目标定在7.5%左右,兼顾了需要和可能。这与全面建成小康社会的目标相衔接,有利于增强市场信心,有利于调整优化经济结构。稳增长更是为了保就业,既要满足城镇新增就业的需要,又要为农村转移劳动力进城务工留出空间,根本上是为了增加城乡居民收入、改善人民生活。实现今年经济增长目标有不少积极因素,但必须付出艰辛努力。
On the target for economic growth: China is still a developing country in the primary stage of socialism, and development remains the key to solving all our country' s problems. We must keep economic development as the central task and maintain a proper economic growth rate. On the basis of careful comparison and repeatedly weighing various factors as well as considering what is needed and what is possible, we set a growth rate target of around 7.5%. This target is in keeping with our goal of finishing building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, and it will boost market confidence and promote economic structural adjustment. More importantly, stable growth ensures employment. We need both to meet the need to create new urban jobs and provide opportunities for rural migrant workers who come to cities for work. Ultimately, stable growth will ensure that urban and rural incomes increase and people's lives improve. There are many positive factors for fulfilling this year's target for economic growth, but to reach it, we must make arduous efforts.
关于价格水平。把居民消费价格涨幅控制在3.5%左右,考虑了去年涨价翘尾影响和今年新涨价因素,也表明我们抑制通胀、保障民生的决心和信心。我国农业连年增产,工业品总体上供大于求,粮食等物资储备充裕,进出口调节能力较强,保持物价总水平基本稳定具备许多有利条件。但今年推动价格上涨的因素不少,不能掉以轻心,必须做好物价调控,切实防止对群众生活造成大的影响。
On the target for controlling price increases: We hope to keep the rise in the CPI at around 3.5%. This is based on consideration of both the carry-over effect of last year's price rises and inflationary factors this year. It also demonstrates our resolve and confidence to keep inflation under control and ensure people's wellbeing. China's agricultural output has gone up for several years in a row; supply of manufactured goods on the whole exceeds demand; and we have substantial reserves of grain and other goods and materials. We are fully capable of adjusting supply and demand through import and export, and all these factors will help maintain basic stability in general prices. However, there are many factors driving up prices this year, so we must not lower our guard. We must keep prices under control to ensure that price increases do not exert a major negative impact on people's lives.
实现今年经济社会发展的目标任务,要把握好以下原则和政策取向。
To fulfill this year's goals for economic and social development, we should adhere to the following principles and policies:
第一,向深化改革要动力。改革是最大的红利。当前改革已进入攻坚期和深水区,必须紧紧依靠人民群众,以壮士断腕的决心、背水一战的气概,冲破思想观念的束缚,突破利益固化的藩篱,以经济体制改革为牵引,全面深化各领域改革。
First, we should create impetus by deepening reform. Reform has brought us the greatest benefits. China's reform has entered a critical stage and a deep water zone. We must rely fully on the people, break mental shackles and vested interests with great determination, and pursue economic structural reform as the key step to deepen comprehensive reform in all areas.
要从群众最期盼的领域改起,从制约经济社会发展最突出的问题改起,从社会各界能够达成共识的环节改起,使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用和更好发挥政府作用,积极推进有利于结构调整的改革,破除制约市场主体活力和要素优化配置的障碍,让全社会创造潜力充分释放,让公平正义得以彰显,让全体人民共享改革发展成果。
In carrying out reform, we need to focus on areas where the public call for reform is strongest, the most pressing problems hindering economic and social development, and links on which there is extensive public consensus. We need to ensure that the market plays the decisive role in allocating resources and make the government better play its role, vigorously advance reforms conducive to economic structural adjustment, remove constraints on market actors and efficiently allocating factors of production, fully tap the creative potential in society, promote fairness and justice, and enable everyone to share in the fruits of reform and development.
第二,保持经济运行处在合理区间。完善宏观调控政策框架,守住稳增长、保就业的下限和防通胀的上限,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。今年拟安排财政赤字13500亿元,比上年增加1500亿元,其中中央财政赤字9500亿元,由中央代地方发债4000亿元。财政赤字和国债规模随着经济总量扩大而有所增加,但赤字率稳定在2.1%,体现了财政政策的连续性。
Second, we should keep economic performance within a proper range. We will improve the macro-control policy framework, maintain a lower limit to ensure stable growth and employment and an upper limit to keep a cap on inflation, and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The government budget deficit for this year is projected to be 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 150 billion yuan over last year. The projected government budget deficit consists of 950 billion yuan of central government deficit and 400 billion yuan of provincial-level government debt in the form of treasury bonds issued by the central government on provincial-level governments' behalf. The government deficit and national debt are increasing along with the growth in the whole economy. However, the deficit rate will be kept at 2.1%, which demonstrates continuity of our fiscal policy.
货币政策要保持松紧适度,促进社会总供求基本平衡,营造稳定的货币金融环境。加强宏观审慎管理,引导货币信贷和社会融资规模适度增长。今年广义货币M2预期增长13%左右。要加强财政、货币和产业、投资等政策协同配合,做好政策储备,适时适度预调微调,确保中国经济这艘巨轮行稳致远。
We will pursue a balanced monetary policy, move toward a basic balance between overall supply and demand in society, and foster a stable monetary and financial environment. We will strengthen macro-prudential management to encourage an appropriate increase of monetary credit and nongovernmental financing. This year, M2 is forecast to grow by around 13%. We will strengthen the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies with industrial and investment policies, maintain policy options, make adjustments at an appropriate time and to an appropriate degree, and ensure smooth sailing of the giant ship of China's economy.
第三,着力提质增效升级、持续改善民生。我们追求的发展,是提高质量效益、推进转型升级、改善人民生活的发展。要在稳增长的同时,推动发展从主要依靠要素投入向更多依靠创新驱动转变,从主要依靠传统比较优势向更多发挥综合竞争优势转换,从国际产业分工中低端向中高端提升,从城乡区域不平衡向均衡协调迈进。
Third, we should work hard to raise the quality and returns of development, promote industrial upgrading and keep improving people's wellbeing. The development we seek is development that raises the quality and returns of development, promotes industrial transformation and upgrading, and improves people's lives. While maintaining steady growth, we need to shift from relying mainly on increasing input of factors of production to making development driven more by innovation, and from relying mainly on traditional comparative strengths to utilizing overall competitive advantages. We need to move up from the low to middle range of international division of labor to the middle to high range, and shift from unbalanced urban-rural development to coordinated and balanced development.
完善政绩考核评价体系,切实把各方面积极性引导到加快转方式调结构、实现科学发展上来,不断增加就业和居民收入,不断改善生态环境,使经济社会发展更有效率、更加公平、更可持续。
We will improve the system for evaluating officials' performance and get everyone involved in a common endeavor to accelerate transformation of the growth model, make structural adjustment and achieve sound development. This will steadily increase employment and personal incomes, improve the environment, and make China's economic and social development more efficient, equitable and sustainable.