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I. National Security Situation
一、国家安全形势
In today's world, the global trends toward multi-polarity and economic globalization are intensifying, and an information society is rapidly coming into being. Countries are increasingly bound together in a community of shared destiny. Peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefit have become an irresistible tide of the times.
当今时代,世界多极化、经济全球化、社会信息化深入发展,国际社会日益成为你中有我、我中有你的命运共同体,和平、发展、合作、共赢成为不可阻挡的时代潮流。
Profound changes are taking place in the international situation, as manifested in the historic changes in the balance of power, global governance structure, Asia-Pacific geostrategic landscape, and international competition in the economic, scientific and technological, and military fields. The forces for world peace are on the rise, so are the factors against war. In the foreseeable future, a world war is unlikely, and the international situation is expected to remain generally peaceful. There are, however, new threats from hegemonism, power politics and neo-interventionism. International competition for the redistribution of power, rights and interests is tending to intensify. Terrorist activities are growing increasingly worrisome. Hotspot issues, such as ethnic, religious, border and territorial disputes, are complex and volatile. Small-scale wars, conflicts and crises are recurrent in some regions. Therefore, the world still faces both immediate and potential threats of local wars.
国际形势深刻演变,国际力量对比、全球治理体系结构、亚太地缘战略格局和国际经济、科技、军事竞争格局正在发生历史性变化。维护和平的力量上升,制约战争的因素增多,在可预见的未来,世界大战打不起来,总体和平态势可望保持。但是,霸权主义、强权政治和新干涉主义将有新的发展,各种国际力量围绕权力和权益再分配的斗争趋于激烈,恐怖主义活动日益活跃,民族宗教矛盾、边界领土争端等热点复杂多变,小战不断、冲突不止、危机频发仍是一些地区的常态,世界依然面临现实和潜在的局部战争威胁。
With a generally favorable external environment, China will remain in an important period of strategic opportunities for its development, a period in which much can be achieved. China's comprehensive national strength, core competitiveness and risk-resistance capacity are notably increasing, and China enjoys growing international standing and influence. Domestically, the Chinese people's standard of living has remarkably improved, and Chinese society remains stable. China, as a large developing country, still faces multiple and complex security threats, as well as increasing external impediments and challenges. Subsistence and development security concerns, as well as traditional and non-traditional security threats are interwoven. Therefore, China has an arduous task to safeguard its national unification, territorial integrity and development interests.
中国发展仍将处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期,外部环境总体有利。国家综合国力、核心竞争力、抵御风险能力显著增强,国际地位和国际影响力显著提高,人民生活显著改善,社会大局保持稳定。作为一个发展中大国,中国仍然面临多元复杂的安全威胁,遇到的外部阻力和挑战逐步增多,生存安全问题和发展安全问题、传统安全威胁和非传统安全威胁相互交织,维护国家统一、维护领土完整、维护发展利益的任务艰巨繁重。
As the world economic and strategic center of gravity is shifting ever more rapidly to the Asia-Pacific region, the US carries on its "rebalancing" strategy and enhances its military presence and its military alliances in this region. Japan is sparing no effort to dodge the post-war mechanism, overhauling its military and security policies. Such development has caused grave concerns among other countries in the region. On the issues concerning China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, some of its offshore neighbors take provocative actions and reinforce their military presence on China's reefs and islands that they have illegally occupied. Some external countries are also busy meddling in South China Sea affairs; a tiny few maintain constant close-in air and sea surveillance and reconnaissance against China. It is thus a long-standing task for China to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. Certain disputes over land territory are still smoldering. The Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia are shrouded in instability and uncertainty. Regional terrorism, separatism and extremism are rampant. All these have a negative impact on the security and stability along China's periphery.
随着世界经济和战略重心加速向亚太地区转移,美国持续推进亚太“再平衡”战略,强化其地区军事存在和军事同盟体系。日本积极谋求摆脱战后体制,大幅调整军事安全政策,国家发展走向引起地区国家高度关注。个别海上邻国在涉及中国领土主权和海洋权益问题上采取挑衅性举动,在非法“占据”的中方岛礁上加强军事存在。一些域外国家也极力插手南海事务,个别国家对华保持高频度海空抵近侦察,海上方向维权斗争将长期存在。一些陆地领土争端也依然存在。朝鲜半岛和东北亚地区局势存在诸多不稳定和不确定因素。地区恐怖主义、分裂主义、极端主义活动猖獗,也对中国周边安全稳定带来不利影响。
The Taiwan issue bears on China's reunification and long-term development, and reunification is an inevitable trend in the course of national rejuvenation. In recent years, cross-Taiwan Straits relations have sustained a sound momentum of peaceful development, but the root cause of instability has not yet been removed, and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and their activities are still the biggest threat to the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations. Further, China faces a formidable task to maintain political security and social stability. Separatist forces for "East Turkistan independence" and "Tibet independence" have inflicted serious damage, particularly with escalating violent terrorist activities by "East Turkistan independence" forces. Besides, anti-China forces have never given up their attempt to instigate a "color revolution" in this country. Consequently, China faces more challenges in terms of national security and social stability. With the growth of China's national interests, its national security is more vulnerable to international and regional turmoil, terrorism, piracy, serious natural disasters and epidemics, and the security of overseas interests concerning energy and resources, strategic sea lines of communication (SLOCs), as well as institutions, personnel and assets abroad, has become an imminent issue.
台湾问题事关国家统一和长远发展,国家统一是中华民族走向伟大复兴的历史必然。近年来两岸关系保持和平发展良好势头,但影响台海局势稳定的根源并未消除,“台独”分裂势力及其分裂活动仍然是两岸关系和平发展的最大威胁。维护国家政治安全和社会稳定的任务艰巨繁重,“东突”“藏独”分裂势力危害严重,特别是“东突”暴力恐怖活动威胁升级,反华势力图谋制造“颜色革命”,国家安全和社会稳定面临更多挑战。随着国家利益不断拓展,国际和地区局势动荡、恐怖主义、海盗活动、重大自然灾害和疾病疫情等都可能对国家安全构成威胁,海外能源资源、战略通道安全以及海外机构、人员和资产安全等海外利益安全问题凸显。
The world revolution in military affairs (RMA) is proceeding to a new stage. Long-range, precise, smart, stealthy and unmanned weapons and equipment are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Outer space and cyber space have become new commanding heights in strategic competition among all parties. The form of war is accelerating its evolution to informationization. World major powers are actively adjusting their national security strategies and defense policies, and speeding up their military transformation and force restructuring. The aforementioned revolutionary changes in military technologies and the form of war have not only had a significant impact on the international political and military landscapes, but also posed new and severe challenges to China's military security.
世界新军事革命深入发展,武器装备远程精确化、智能化、隐身化、无人化趋势明显,太空和网络空间成为各方战略竞争新的制高点,战争形态加速向信息化战争演变。世界主要国家积极调整国家安全战略和防务政策,加紧推进军事转型,重塑军事力量体系。军事技术和战争形态的革命性变化,对国际政治军事格局产生重大影响,对中国军事安全带来新的严峻挑战。
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